Forex Forecast: Pairs In Focus - Sunday, April 18

10 and 20 us dollar bill

The difference between success and failure in Forex trading is very likely to depend mostly upon which currency pairs you choose to trade each week and in which direction, and not on the exact trading methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits.

When starting the trading week, it is a good idea to look at the big picture of what is developing in the market as a whole and how such developments and affected by macro fundamentals and market sentiment.

It is a good time to be trading markets right now, as there are a few valid long-term bullish trends in major U.S. and European stock market indices, which can be traded at most Forex brokers as CFDs.

Big Picture April 18

Last week’s Forex market saw the strongest rise in the relative values of the New Zealand dollar and the strongest fall in the relative value of the U.S. dollar.

I wrote in my previous piece last week that the best trades were likely to be long of the S&P 500 Index and of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) following a daily (New York) close above $61,165. While the S&P 500 Index rose over the week by 1.47%, but Bitcoin closed Friday down by 3.35% from its daily close on Tuesday, giving an average loss of 0.94%.

Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment

The headline takeaway from last week is that market sentiment is risk-on, especially in the U.S. and the Eurozone centered on Germany. Demand has been stoked by dovish monetary policy plus stimulus in the U.S., despite fears that policy will lead to untenable inflationary pressures. The week ended with the major U.S. stock index, the S&P 500, again closing at an all-time high price of 4185.50 – the second consecutive weekly close above 4000, while the Dow and the NASDAQ also closed at record highs. European stock markets also hit record highs, with the DAX Index also ending the week at a record high of 155398.

The U.S. dollar fell over the past week after running into technical resistance two weeks ago, while its long-term trend is mixed.

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