Forex And Cryptocurrency Forecast For February 17 - 21, 2020

The forecast given last week believed that in the event of an upward trend reversal, the pound would overcome the resistance of 1.2975 and possibly break through the upper limit of the 1.2800-1.3000 channel. This is what happened: the pair set the final chord at 1.3045.


It seems that the bulls can't take the 110.00 level. Not yet. The pair tried to gain a foothold above it in mid-January and tried again to do so in February. But again, to no avail. Even the strengthening of the dollar as a safe-haven currency did not help. Having barely reached the 110.13 mark in the middle of the week, the pair turned around and eventually finished at 109.77;


What is the best refuge from the economic turmoil caused by the coronavirus? Dollar? Yes, indeed, it shows convincing growth against the euro and a number of other currencies. But Bitcoin shows even more convincing growth against the dollar itself. Last week, 80% of analysts thought that the BTC/USD pair would reach $10.450. And this forecast was 99.99% correct: ­ on Thursday, February 13, its quotes reached a height of $10.490. Thus, since the beginning of January, the cost of the main cryptocurrency has increased by more than 45%.

So, is Bitcoin the super safe haven?

However, as it turned out, there are even more attractive assets. The demand for Bitcoin has also pushed the demand for such top altcoins as Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD), and others. And if before they followed in the wake of the reference cryptocurrency, now some of them have gone far ahead. For example, Ethereum has increased in price by 120% since the beginning of the year, but it has increased by 35% only in the last week.

This activity of alternative coins could not but affect the share of Bitcoin in the total capitalization of the crypto market: if in early January it was 70%, today it has dropped to 62.4%. So the discussion about the best asset-haven is not over yet.

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of various methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:


The calendar for the upcoming week is filled with information for fundamental analysis specialists. Although, as for the Eurozone, the forecasts do not promise anything good in advance. It is expected that the indicators of the indices that characterize the state of the business environment in Germany and the Eurozone – ZEW on Tuesday, February 18 and Markit on February 21 – will be lower than the previous ones. The report on the ECB meeting on February 20 may add to the pessimism. All this can lead to further losses of the euro against the US dollar. Positive news from the front of the fight against coronavirus will be able to turn the trend up, but it is still difficult to predict anything here.

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