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• EUR/USD cycled above 1.0750 on Monday.
• European Retail Sales figures due on Tuesday.
• Friday’s US consumer sentiment survey to cap off an otherwise quiet week.

EUR/USD churned around 1.0770 to kick off the new trading week, with the pair rising after better-than-expected Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures early Monday before settling into familiar chart territory above 1.0750 ahead of Tuesday’s pan-European Retail Sales figures due in the upcoming European market session.

Monday’s HCOB Services PMI for April surprised to the upside, printing at 53.3 MoM versus the forecast steady hold at 52.9. Tuesday’s upcoming European Retail Sales will be the day’s key data print for the day’s session, with markets expecting pan-European Retail Sales for March to rebound to 0.6% after the previous month’s -0.5% decline. 

The week’s US data docket remains tepid, leaving Fedspeak from various heads of the Federal Reserve (Fed) giving speeches this week at the forefront. The week will close out with Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which is expected to ease back down to 77.0 in May after the previous month’s 77.2.

EUR/USD technical outlook

EUR/USD is in chart churn near 1.0770 as the pair trades within the technical range established during last Friday’s volatility, with the pair capped off in the near-term by Friday’s high just above 1.0810. Intraday momentum is leaning into the bullish side, with the pair climbing from last week’s bottom bids near 1.0650.

On daily candlesticks, the pair is trading into the high side of a descending trendline from 1.1140, a peak set in late December. EUR/USD is recovering from the last swing low into the 1.0600 handle, though immediate technical resistance is priced in at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0797.

EUR/USD hourly chart

EUR/USD daily chart
 

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