EUR/USD Forecast November 18-22 – Will Euro Fall Below 1.10?

EUR/USD enjoyed a quiet week and posted slight gains. The upcoming week features manufacturing and services PMIs. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

German investors were less pessimistic than expected in November. The indicator improved to -2.1, compared to -22.8 a month earlier. German Preliminary GDP posted a gain of 0.1% in the third quarter, above the estimate of -0.1%. The initial estimate for eurozone GDP remained steady at 0.2%, matching the forecast. On the inflation front, eurozone Final CPI ticked lower to 0.7%, down from 0.8%.

In the U.S., last week’s highlights were consumer inflation and spending reports. CPI improved to 0.4%, above the estimate of 0.3%. This was the strongest monthly gain since March. The core reading ticked higher to 0.2%, up from 0.1%. This matched the estimate. Retail sales reports were mixed. Retail sales rebounded with a gain of 0.3%, up from -0.3% a month earlier. This beat the estimate of 0.1%. The core reading improved to 0.2%, up from -0.1%. However, it missed the forecast of 0.3%.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. ECB Financial Stability Review:Monday, 9:00. This report will provide details about the stability of the financial system. Investors will be looking for hints regarding future monetary policy.
  2. Current Account: Tuesday, 9:00. The current account surplus rose to EUR 26.6 billion in August, up from EUR 20.5 a month earlier. The surplus is expected to drop to EUR 22.3 in September.
  3. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: Thursday, 12:30. The European Central Bank releases its monetary policy accounts four weeks after the rate decision. Investors will be looking for clues as to future monetary policy.
  4. Consumer ConfidenceThursday, 15:00. The Eurozone consumer remains weak, and the indicator dipped to -8 pts in September. The estimate for October stands at -7 pts.
  5. German Final GDPFriday, 7:00. The German economy contracted in the second quarter by 0.1%, as the eurozone continues to struggle. The estimate for Q3 stands at 0.1%.
  6. PMIs: Thursday, 8:15 for France, 8:30 for Germany, eurozone number at 9:00. These are the initial releases for services and manufacturing PMIs. The Services PMIs continue to point to expansion in France, Germany and the eurozone, but the same cannot be said about manufacturing, which has been hit hard by weak global conditions. Manufacturing PMIs are projected to be in contraction territory in the eurozone and Germany. The estimate for France is better, with an estimate of 50.9 pts. This points to stagnation.
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