Eurozone inflation remains low. German CPI slowed to 0.1% in March, down from 0.4% a month earlier. The all-eurozone indicator showed that inflation dropped to 0.7% in March, down sharply from 1.2% in February. German retail sales climbed to 1.2% in February, crushing the estimate of 0.1%. This was up from 0.9% in January. German and eurozone manufacturing activity slowed in March.

The German indicator fell from 48.0 to 45.4, while the all-eurozone gauge slowed from 49.2 to 44.5 points. Services PMIs plunged in March, pointing to deep contraction. The German indicator fell from 52.5 to 31.7, while the all-eurozone indicator slowed from 52.6 to 26.4 points. All four PMIs missed their forecasts.

In the U.S., employment numbers were dismal, as the COVID-19 virus has paralyzed much of the U.S. economy. Jobless claims soared to 6.6 million, more than double to 3.2 million a week earlier. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 701 thousand, much worse than the estimate of 100 thousand. The unemployment rate shot up to 4.4% up from 3.5 percent. The estimate stood at 3.8 percent. On the manufacturing front, ISM Manufacturing PMI slowed to 49.1 down from 50.1 a month earlier. A reading below the 50-level indicates contraction. Still, the reading easily beat the estimate of 44.9 points.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. German Factory Orders: Monday, 6:00. Factory orders jumped 5.5% in January, after three straight declines. This reading easily beat the estimate of 1.5%. Analysts are braced for a decline of 2.7% in February.
2. Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 8:30. Investor confidence plunged in March, dropping to -17.1 points. This missed the estimate of -11.0, and was down from 5.2 points in February.
3. German Industrial Production: Tuesday, 6:00. The indicator accelerated to 3.0% in January, up from -3.5% a month earlier. This reading was well above the forecast of 1.7%. The estimate for February stands at -0.7%.
4. German Trade Balance: Thursday, 6:00. Germany continues to record trade surpluses every month. In January, the surplus narrowed to EUR 18.5 billion, down from 19.2 billion a month earlier. The surplus is expected to climb to EUR 20.3 billion in February. 
5. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: Thursday, 11:30. At the March 12th meeting, the ECB opted not to follow the Federal Reserve and Bank of England and did not lower its main deposit rate, which is at -0.5%. The bank also expanded its asset purchase program by 120 billion euros. Investors will be keen to read the details of the meeting provided by the minutes.

EUR/USD Technical analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

• We start with resistance at 1.1119.
• 1.1025 is next.
• 1.0900 switched to resistance, as EUR/USD broke below this line late in the week.
• 1.0829 is an immediate resistance line.
• The round number of 1.07 is next.
• 1.0620 is protecting the 1.06 level.
• 1.05 is the final support level for now.

.I remain bearish on EUR/USD

In the present financial crisis, the dollar remains the currency of choice for nervous investors. The eurozone economy was sluggish before the COVID-19 outbreak, and economic conditions have only worsened, with Italy and Spain hit especially hard by the virus.