EUR/USD Forecast April 5-9 – Euro Dips For Third Straight Week


Bank Note, Euro, Bills, Paper Money

EUR/USD dropped slightly last week, marking a third successive losing week. The pair touched a low of 1.1704, its lowest level since November 2020. There are four events on the calendar this week.  Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

German CPI dipped to 0.5% in March, matching the forecast. This was down from 0.7% a month earlier. Eurozone CPI slowed slightly in March. Headline inflation slowed from 1.4% to 1.3%, while Core CPI dropped from 1.1% to 0.9%. German Retail Sales rebounded after two straight declines, with a gain of 1.2%. Still, this figure fell short of the forecast of 2.0%. Manufacturing remains a bright spot, with growth throughout the eurozone with readings above the 50-level. Germany looked very strong, with a reading of 66.6.

In the US, Conference Board Consumer Confidence soared to 109.7 in March, up from a revised reading of 90.4. It was the sharpest one-month gain in almost 18 years. 

US Pending Home Sales posted a second straight decline in March. The decline of 10.6% was much sharper than the estimate of -3.1%. The week wrapped up with excellent nonfarm payroll numbers, which came in at 916,000. This was up from 379,000 and crushed the estimate of 652,000.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Sentix Investor Confidence: Tuesday, 8:30. After months of mostly negative readings, Investor Confidence improved to 5.0 in March. The upturn is expected to continue, with a forecast of 6.8 for April.
  2. Services PMIs: Wednesday, 7:15 in Spain, 7:45 in Italy, 7:50 in France, 7:55 in Germany, 8:00 in the whole eurozone. Services PMIs are expected to remain below 50, which indicates contraction, in Spain, Italy, France, and the eurozone. Germany’s PMI is projected to nose above the neutral 50-level, at 50.8.
  3. German Factory OrdersThursday, 6:00. Factory Orders improved to 1.4% in January, up from -1.9% beforehand. The estimate for February stands at 1.3%.
  4. French Industrial Production: Friday, 6:45. Industrial Production in the eurozone’s second-largest economy is expected to slow to 0.6%, down from 3.3%.
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