EUR/USD Forecast April 12-16 – After A Superb Week For The Euro, Can The Momentum Continue?

EUR/USD rebounded and had its best week of the year, gaining 1.16%. There are four events on the calendar this week. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The Eurozone Sentix Investor index accelerated to 13.1 in April, up sharply from 5.0. The reading easily beat the forecast of 6.8. German and eurozone Service PMI were a bit higher than expected, with readings of 51.5 and 49.6, respectively.

For Germany, this was the first time that services showed growth in six months – the 50 line separates growth from contraction. German manufacturing numbers were mixed – Factory Orders gained 1.2%, but Industrial Production fell by 1.6%.

In the US, JOLTS Job Openings rose to 7.37 million, up from 6.92 million and well above the forecast of 6.91 million. However, unemployment claims climbed unexpectedly, from 719 thousand to 744 thousand, well above the estimate of 682 thousand. The Federal minutes indicated that the central bank remains concerned about the strength of the US economy and will continue its QE program in order to support economic growth.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Retail Sales: Monday, 9:00. Retail Sales started the year on a sour note, with a reading of -5.9%. Analysts expect a rebound in February, with an estimate of 1.3%.
  2. ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. The indicator continues to accelerate and show increased confidence, rising to 74.0 in March. This was up from 69.6, and the forecast for April stands at 77.2.
  3. Industrial Production: Wednesday, 9:00.  Industrial Production rose 0.8% in January but is projected to fall by 1.2% in February.
  4. Eurozone Inflation Report: Friday, 9:00. Headline inflation rose to 1.3% in February, up from 0.9% beforehand. Core CPI slipped from 1.1% to 0.9%. The upcoming releases are expected to confirm the initial releases.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

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