Eurozone: Economic Sentiment Goes Through The Roof

Inflation scare?

Selling price expectations rose for the second month in a row across all surveyed business sectors. Consumer price expectations increased only mildly. Selling price expectations in industry are now close to a record high, but they are now also in construction, retail and even the services sector above their long term average. The big question is how temporary these price increases will be. Will they disappear once some of the supply chains problems are resolved? With strong demand to be expected in the second half of the year and a further inventory build-up in the offing, we doubt that price tensions will disappear quickly. To be sure, it is probably too early to anticipate a price-wage spiral. But if we see a strong recovery in the coming months, which seems to be suggested by today’s data, the hawks in the ECB’s Governing Council will likely become a bit more vocal. The chances of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program being lengthened after March 2022 are getting slimmer by the day and the central bank could even suggest that it will not fully spend the current envelope.

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Disclaimer: This publication has been prepared by the Economic and Financial Analysis Division of ING Bank N.V. (“ING”) solely for information purposes without regard to any ...

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