European Growth Concerns Deepen

The latest economic indicators reveal that the economic slowdown in Europe persists. President Draghi of the European Central Bank (ECB) has underlined the continued weakness, expectations for softer near-term growth, and downside risks. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its economic projections for the euro area. Political uncertainties in Europe add to the headwinds affecting investor sentiment.

The HIS Markit Flash Euro Area Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which combines manufacturing and service sector data, fell to 50.7 for January, following a reading of 51.7 in December. The January mark was significantly weaker than the consensus expectation of 51.4. The moderation in the euro area’s economic growth, which began a year ago, is continuing in the first quarter of 2019.

The Flash Composite PMI for France fell unexpectedly to 47.9 because a sharp drop in the services component more than offset a pick-up in the manufacturing component. Conversely, the Flash Composite PMI for Germany recovered slightly to 52.1, following a 66-month low of 51.6 in December. A further decline in the manufacturing component was offset by a stronger performance in the services sector. Adding in the other euro area economies, we observe overall declines in both manufacturing and services PMIs for the region. Manufacturing new orders as well as services incoming new business fell in January.

The IMF, in the quarterly update of its World Economic Outlook, lowered its projection of economic growth in the euro area to 1.6% in 2019. Last fall, their projection was for 1.9% growth. They continue to expect a 1.7% growth in 2020. Subdued external demand due to a projected global growth slowdown is one reason for this weaker outlook for the euro area, particularly for Germany. The IMF cites some country-specific factors affecting the near-term outlook: revised auto emission standards in Germany, weak domestic demand and higher borrowing costs in Italy, and demonstrations and strikes in France.

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Disclaimer: The preceding was provided by Cumberland Advisors, Home Office: One Sarasota Tower, 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303, Sarasota, FL 34236; New Jersey Office: 614 Landis Ave, Vineland, NJ ...

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