Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Breakout Levels Well-Defined Post-Fed

Euro has rallied more than 0.75% against the US Dollar since the start of the week with the post-FOMC breakout now targeting initial resistance targets. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD charts. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

EURO PRICE CHART - EUR/USD DAILY

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EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs US Dollar Daily - Technical Outlook

Technical Outlook: In my latest Euro Price Outlook we noted that the near-term advance in EUR/USD was vulnerable below pitchfork resistance with, “broader key support steady at the yearly low-day close / 61.8% retracement at 1.1182/86.” Price registered a low at 1.1181 this week before rebounding sharply on the back of yesterday’s FOMC interest rate decision with the advance now testing basic channel resistance extending off the late-January high (red).

A topside breach here targets subsequent resistance objectives at the monthly high at 1.1348 and the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range at 1.1393. Key support steady at 1.1182/87 with a break / close below the monthly open / opening-range lows at 1.1160/65 needed to shift the broader focus lower.

EURO PRICE CHART - EUR/USD 120MIN

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Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD 120min - Euro vs US Dollar Technical Outlook

Notes: A closer look at price action shows Euro breaching the descending pitchfork formation extending off the monthly highs with the advance failing today just ahead of near-term resistance at 1.1317. Interim support at 1.1264 backed by 1.1232 and the weekly open at 1208– looking for downside exhaustion at one of these two level IF price is indeed heading higher. Topside Euro levels unchanged at 1.1348, “1.1374 and 1.1393- a breach there is needed to fuel the next leg higher with such a scenario targeting the 2019 yearly open at 1.1445 (look for a bigger reaction there IF reached).”

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