Euro Forecast: Breakouts Constrained, Further Gains May Have To Wait For EUR/JPY, EUR/USD Rates

Euro Plagued by Brexit, Year-End Profit Taking

The Euro has been among the top-performing currencies in 2020, surging to two-year highs versus the US Dollar in recent days. But with the holidays around the corner, worrying news of a new coronavirus mutation making its way across the UK, and the potential for Brexit to go off the cliff edge, traders are rightfully taking profit in some of the high fliers of the year. Both EUR/USD and EUR/JPY rates, which were poised for breakout attempts just a few short days ago, may now need to wait until the new year before taking another stab at a bullish advances.


Euro Forecast: Breakouts Constrained, Further Gains May Have to Wait for EUR/JPY, EUR/USD Rates

EUR/USD rates are back in bull flag carved out in the first two-plus weeks of December, following the bullish breakout above sideways range resistance in place since late-June. It was previously noted that “the more near-term range carved out thus far in December between 1.2059 and 1.2178 (119-pips) suggests an immediate upside target of 1.2297.” EUR/USD reached a high of 1.2273 before turning lower last week. While near-term weakness suggests that EUR/USD could drop back to range support near 1.2059, it still holds that “final targets for a simple doubling of the broader range dating back to late-June would suggest gains through 1.2600 in the coming months.”

IG Client Sentiment Index: EUR/USD Rate Forecast (December 22, 2020) (Chart 2)

(Click on image to enlarge)

Euro Forecast: Breakouts Constrained, Further Gains May Have to Wait for EUR/JPY, EUR/USD Rates

EUR/USD: Retail trader data shows 37.41% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.67 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 24.84% higher than yesterday and 19.06% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.20% lower than yesterday and 20.76% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise.

Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EUR/USD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

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