• The euro initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, but then fell a bit as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior around the world.
• Keep in mind that a lot of this is being driven by interest rates and the bond markets.
• The Japanese interest rates did rise slightly overnight due to the bond market selling off.
• All things being equal, this is a market that I do think continues to go higher, but we do see a lot of noise out there, and therefore I think you continue to see these dips coming back and forth.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis in this pair does suggest that we should go higher over the longer term, but we may have to pull back in order to offer a bit of value. The ¥170 level so far has offered a certain amount of support, but if we were to break down below there, the next area of interest is the ¥169 level, an area that I think a lot of people will be paying close attention to as it previously was an area of resistance.

We are approaching the top of the selling pressure that the Bank of Japan put into the market, due to its intervention a while ago. Ultimately, if we can break above the top of the move from last month, this is a pair that could go much higher, perhaps reaching to the ¥175 level, maybe even higher than that given enough time. Either way, I have no interest in shorting this market because of this far too bullish, and it would not be until we break down below the ¥164 level that I would even begin to have the conversation of bounce shorting.

Ultimately, you get paid at the end of every day to hang on to anything short the Japanese yen, and I think that continues to be one of the major drivers going forward. Even if the European Central Bank decides to cut rates, the reality is that you can still drive a truck between interest rates in Europe and Japan, and at the end of the day that’s probably the only thing that really matters.

More By This Author: