Duty To Leave: No "Meaningful" Brexit Vote Tuesday, Just A Political Circus

The UK Parliament votes tomorrow on Theresa's May's Brexit deal. Expect a circus, not a meaningful vote.

Temporary Happiness

Theresa May's deal will get overwhelmingly clobbered in UK tomorrow. The usual circus will then ensue. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will threaten a motion of no confidence.

The remainers will give passionate pleas. So will those who favor a hard Brexit as will those who want a super-Canada deal or a super-Norway deal.

Everyone, but those backing Theresa May will temporarily happy. But the temporary happiness will last for about 15 minutes.

Plan B

May will have 3 days to present Plan B.

She will do so but it will be the same as plan A. May will go to Jean-Claude Juncker who will be happy to write a set of non-binding lies on a napkin for May to present to parliament.

Will that be enough? Probably not. But it is unlikely to be meaningful then. If there is another rejection in Parliament, the EU might offer some equally meaningless non-binding gibberish about the backstop.

Nothing Has Changed

Eurointelligence has been amusing recently. Last week it thought a no-deal Brexit was the base scenario. Before that, for months it presented the case that May's deal would get approved at the last minute.

Today, Eurointelligence writes "We argue that the most likely option is agreement on an amended version - possibly Norway - either after tomorrow’s vote or after a new election".

For months, Eurointelligence stated, "nothing has changed." It also presented the view that new elections were an extremely low probability. "

Given last week's opinion vs today's opinion, something had to change somewhere.


The problem with an EEA "Norway" option is that the UK would be stuck in a customs union, unable to negotiate its own trade deals.

A Norway deal would also hold the UK to Schengen Agreement and open travel, thus the term super-Norway to carve out exclusions.

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