Key Test For USDJPY

USDJPY is at an interesting juncture here. Following the correction from highs and the break below the 148.98 level lows, price is now retesting that level from beneath. If bulls can get back above here, this might well signal the end of the correction and the potential resumption of the broader bull trend. Alternatively, failure here might well signal the beginning of a deeper move lower and potential trend reversal.

Shifting Fed View

While yesterday’s FOMC minutes were perhaps a little more hawkish than the market was expecting, the caveat is that they fell ahead of the recent October CPI reading. With inflation having fallen firmly against last month in the US, traders sense that the Fed is likely done with tightening and will soon shift into easing mode over H1 2024.

Diverging Fed/BOJ Expectations

On the other side of the equation, there is a growing market view that over the same horizon, the BOJ will be forced to shift out of its ultra-loose easing policy. With inflation remaining elevated in Japan, and the BOJ having taken a number of, what might be seen as, precursory steps to tightening. With the view that the BOJ will likely tighten next year while the Fed will likely cut, there is plenty of room for USDJPY to fall further in coming months, making it an interesting pair to monitor for short opportunities.

Technical Views

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USDJPY

Following the correction lower, USDJPY is retesting the 148.98 level from beneath. If bulls can get back above here, focus will be on a further push higher and a fresh challenge of the current highs around 151.81. Should we fail here, however, risks of a deeper correction grow, putting focus on 145 as the next support level to note. 

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