Currency Speculators Drive Euro Bullish Bets To A 92-Week High

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 6th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

 

British pound sterling & Australian dollar lead Weekly Speculator Changes

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COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British pound sterling (8,391 contracts) with the Australian dollar (4,067 contracts), the Euro (2,636 contracts), the Swiss franc (2,017 contracts) and the Japanese yen (1,398 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Mexican peso (-18,134 contracts) with the Canadian dollar (-5,974 contracts), the Brazilian real (-5,439 contracts), the New Zealand dollar (-1,444 contracts), Bitcoin (-257 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-6 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the rising Euro positioning. Large speculators increased their bullish bets for the Euro this week for the seventh time out of the past eight weeks and for the twelfth time out of the past thirteen weeks. The Euro speculator position has gone from a total of -47,676 contracts on August 30th to a total of +124,883 contracts this week for a thirteen-week change of +172,559 contracts. The current speculator standing for the Euro has now ascended to the most bullish level since March 2nd of 2021, a span of ninety-two weeks.

The Euro (EURUSD) price has been on a bullish trend as well since falling to an approximate 20-year low in September at a below parity exchange rate of 0.9593. Since the September low, the Euro has rallied by approximately 9 percent and is now trading at the highest levels since June with this week’s close above the 1.0550 exchange rate.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-06-2022
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
EUR 711,537 84 124,883 73 -160,005 31 35,122 35
MXN 293,708 93 47,952 48 -53,360 51 5,408 66
GBP 230,311 55 -28,193 45 37,774 60 -9,581 39
JPY 223,424 64 -65,996 28 75,202 72 -9,206 35
AUD 158,755 51 -40,563 47 42,820 51 -2,257 47
CAD 148,891 29 -22,090 15 22,905 88 -815 28
USD Index 45,115 56 24,886 66 -27,540 32 2,654 46
NZD 42,954 36 -6,498 37 6,301 61 197 54
CHF 40,171 33 -12,230 22 17,859 74 -5,629 38
BRL 25,464 7 2,198 48 -4,324 51 2,126 86
RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24
Bitcoin 15,769 83 67 78 -568 0 501 24

 


Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & EuroFX

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Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Bitcoin (78.1 percent) and the EuroFX (73.3 percent) lead the currency markets currently. The US Dollar Index (66.4 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (15.5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and the only currency in an Extreme-Bearish position (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (66.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (66.4 percent)
EuroFX (73.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (44.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (37.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (28.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (27.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (22.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (22.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (47.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (43.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (36.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (40.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (47.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (55.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (48.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (54.1 percent)
Bitcoin (78.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (82.6 percent)

 

Japanese Yen tops Strength Trends

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Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Japanese Yen (22.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (17.1 percent), the British Pound Sterling (16.8 percent), the EuroFX (15.3 percent) and the Australian Dollar (10.1 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-28.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the US Dollar Index (-8.7 percent), the Canadian Dollar (-4.7 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-2.5 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-8.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-13.0 percent)
EuroFX (15.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (22.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (12.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (22.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (16.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-18.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-4.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (5.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (10.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (17.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (35.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (15.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (37.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-28.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-20.2 percent)
Bitcoin (0.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (5.3 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

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US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT Chart

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,892 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.1 4.1 12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.0 65.1 6.6
– Net Position: 24,886 -27,540 2,654
– Gross Longs: 36,157 1,838 5,610
– Gross Shorts: 11,271 29,378 2,956
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.2 to 1 0.1 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 66.4 32.0 45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.7 10.8 -17.6

 


Euro Currency Futures:

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Euro Currency Futures COT Chart

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 124,883 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,636 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 122,247 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.4 51.0 12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.9 73.5 7.0
– Net Position: 124,883 -160,005 35,122
– Gross Longs: 245,063 363,169 85,050
– Gross Shorts: 120,180 523,174 49,928
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 73.3 30.6 35.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.3 -18.8 25.8

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

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British Pound Sterling Futures COT Chart

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -28,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,391 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.4 73.3 10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.6 56.9 14.1
– Net Position: -28,193 37,774 -9,581
– Gross Longs: 28,539 168,838 22,941
– Gross Shorts: 56,732 131,064 32,522
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 44.8 59.7 39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 16.8 -19.6 18.0

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

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Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT Chart

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -65,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,394 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.6 76.1 11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 40.1 42.4 15.3
– Net Position: -65,996 75,202 -9,206
– Gross Longs: 23,589 169,918 24,896
– Gross Shorts: 89,585 94,716 34,102
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.2 72.3 34.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.6 -20.9 12.7

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

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Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT Chart

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,247 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 3.3 70.9 25.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.8 26.5 39.4
– Net Position: -12,230 17,859 -5,629
– Gross Longs: 1,343 28,500 10,183
– Gross Shorts: 13,573 10,641 15,812
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 2.7 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.3 74.4 38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.5 -8.7 21.1

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

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Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -22,090 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,116 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.6 53.3 20.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.5 37.9 21.4
– Net Position: -22,090 22,905 -815
– Gross Longs: 30,717 79,379 30,984
– Gross Shorts: 52,807 56,474 31,799
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.5 87.8 28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.7 4.0 -1.8

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

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Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -40,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,630 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.9 63.7 10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.4 36.7 12.0
– Net Position: -40,563 42,820 -2,257
– Gross Longs: 36,334 101,160 16,814
– Gross Shorts: 76,897 58,340 19,071
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.2 50.8 46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 10.1 -17.5 30.8

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

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New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,054 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.0 53.4 7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 53.1 38.8 7.4
– Net Position: -6,498 6,301 197
– Gross Longs: 16,302 22,950 3,397
– Gross Shorts: 22,800 16,649 3,200
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.8 61.3 53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.1 -23.5 41.4

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

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Mexican Peso Futures COT Chart

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 47,952 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,086 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 60.5 35.9 2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.1 54.1 0.8
– Net Position: 47,952 -53,360 5,408
– Gross Longs: 177,555 105,410 7,854
– Gross Shorts: 129,603 158,770 2,446
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.8 50.5 65.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.1 -14.0 -7.7

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

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Brazil Real Futures COT Chart

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.4 28.6 14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 48.8 45.5 5.7
– Net Position: 2,198 -4,324 2,126
– Gross Longs: 14,625 7,271 3,566
– Gross Shorts: 12,427 11,595 1,440
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 48.3 50.6 85.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -28.9 28.6 -3.2

 


Bitcoin Futures:

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Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT Chart

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 67 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.2 1.9 8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.8 5.5 5.5
– Net Position: 67 -568 501
– Gross Longs: 12,651 306 1,365
– Gross Shorts: 12,584 874 864
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 78.1 36.9 24.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.8 -9.1 3.3

 


Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


More By This Author:

COT Speculator Extremes: Bloomberg Commodity Index, Wheat Lead Weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions
Currency Speculators Up Their Mexican Peso Bets Higher For 8th Time In 9 Weeks
COT Bonds Speculators Trim Their Eurodollar Bearish Bets

Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment.Due to the level of risk and market volatility, ...

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