Currency Speculators Boost Mexican Peso Bullish Bets To 104-Week High

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday, March 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data is the rising bullish sentiment in the Mexican Peso currency futures contracts. Peso speculators have boosted their bullish bets for six consecutive weeks and in nine out of the past ten weeks. Over the past six-week time-frame, Peso bets have gained by a total of +53.807 contracts, going from -790 net positions on January 25th to +53,017 net positions this week. This recent improvement in Peso positioning pushed the current net speculator standing (+53,017 contracts) to the most bullish level in the past one hundred and four weeks, dating back to March 10th of 2020.

Joining the Mexican peso (10,639 contracts) with positive changes this week were the Japanese yen (12,876 contracts), Brazil real (48 contracts), Swiss franc (5,538 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,793 contracts), Australian dollar (141 contracts) and Bitcoin (185 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-730 contracts), Euro (-6,095 contracts), British pound sterling (-12,189 contracts), Canadian dollar (-6,494 contracts) and the Russian ruble (-1,868 contracts).


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

EUR 738,990 98 58,844 53 -83,873 52 25,029 16
GBP 246,312 68 -12,526 65 25,457 45 -12,931 29
JPY 208,683 61 -55,856 33 76,657 74 -20,801 5
AUD 197,094 80 -78,195 12 78,183 77 12 52
MXN 166,433 34 53,017 50 -55,194 50 2,177 52
CAD 149,425 30 7,646 55 -15,494 46 7,848 45
BRL 68,623 65 50,496 100 -52,564 0 2,068 90
USD Index 62,447 95 34,044 85 -37,890 12 3,846 59
NZD 53,250 50 -12,379 50 13,592 51 -1,213 38
CHF 51,820 30 -9,710 53 21,942 56 -12,232 27
RUB 22,420 7 7,806 32 -7,325 69 -481 22
Bitcoin 9,591 48 265 100 -422 0 157 17

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT Chart

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 34,044 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,774 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 73.7 12.8 9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.2 73.4 2.9
– Net Position: 34,044 -37,890 3,846
– Gross Longs: 46,031 7,962 5,642
– Gross Shorts: 11,987 45,852 1,796
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.8 to 1 0.2 to 1 3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.5 11.6 58.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.9 7.7 -19.7

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT Chart

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 58,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,939 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.8 52.3 11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.9 63.7 8.2
– Net Position: 58,844 -83,873 25,029
– Gross Longs: 242,683 386,654 85,727
– Gross Shorts: 183,839 470,527 60,698
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.1 52.0 15.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.4 -7.8 0.5

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT Chart

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -12,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -337 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.7 66.8 9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.8 56.4 14.6
– Net Position: -12,526 25,457 -12,931
– Gross Longs: 50,982 164,423 23,076
– Gross Shorts: 63,508 138,966 36,007
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.0 44.7 28.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.4 5.1 -8.0

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT Chart

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,856 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,876 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 7.5 81.6 8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.2 44.9 18.1
– Net Position: -55,856 76,657 -20,801
– Gross Longs: 15,548 170,330 16,884
– Gross Shorts: 71,404 93,673 37,685
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 1.8 to 1 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.7 74.3 4.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -3.1 -13.5

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT Chart

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -9,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,248 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.4 70.7 17.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.1 28.4 40.9
– Net Position: -9,710 21,942 -12,232
– Gross Longs: 4,856 36,635 8,947
– Gross Shorts: 14,566 14,693 21,179
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 53.0 55.5 27.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.6 9.6 -22.1

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,494 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,140 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.5 41.7 22.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 27.3 52.1 17.5
– Net Position: 7,646 -15,494 7,848
– Gross Longs: 48,492 62,360 33,951
– Gross Shorts: 40,846 77,854 26,103
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.1 46.4 45.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.5 2.8 1.2

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -78,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 141 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,336 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 9.9 74.1 13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 49.6 34.5 13.0
– Net Position: -78,195 78,183 12
– Gross Longs: 19,521 146,144 25,564
– Gross Shorts: 97,716 67,961 25,552
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.2 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.3 77.2 52.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.7 -14.6 35.3

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT Chart

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -12,379 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,172 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.6 62.0 5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.9 36.5 7.5
– Net Position: -12,379 13,592 -1,213
– Gross Longs: 15,775 33,005 2,792
– Gross Shorts: 28,154 19,413 4,005
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.5 51.3 37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.7 0.5 14.8

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT Chart

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 53,017 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,639 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,378 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.7 36.4 3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.8 69.5 2.1
– Net Position: 53,017 -55,194 2,177
– Gross Longs: 76,020 60,537 5,674
– Gross Shorts: 23,003 115,731 3,497
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 50.0 49.8 52.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 22.9 -22.4 -0.4

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT Chart

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 48 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,448 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 79.5 15.3 5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.9 91.9 2.1
– Net Position: 50,496 -52,564 2,068
– Gross Longs: 54,543 10,468 3,488
– Gross Shorts: 4,047 63,032 1,420
– Long to Short Ratio: 13.5 to 1 0.2 to 1 2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 90.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 62.0 -62.3 8.4

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Russian Ruble Futures COT Chart

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,674 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.5 60.6 2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 1.6 93.3 5.1
– Net Position: 7,806 -7,325 -481
– Gross Longs: 8,173 13,590 657
– Gross Shorts: 367 20,915 1,138
– Long to Short Ratio: 22.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.9 68.7 21.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.1 -7.0 -22.4

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT Chart

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 80.9 2.8 9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 78.1 7.2 8.3
– Net Position: 265 -422 157
– Gross Longs: 7,760 272 950
– Gross Shorts: 7,495 694 793
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:      
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 7.6 16.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:      
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.4 4.5 -8.1

 


*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a ...

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