Another day of seemingly irrepressible stock gains despite the risks of a holiday weekend, with US markets to close Monday for President's Day. It doesn't pay to predict trouble. But please do note that the almighty dollar is down again against foreign currencies.

In early trading US Treasuries again fell in price over housing starts rising, a possible herald of inflation. Lower T-Bill prices mean interest rates (which move inverse to the price) rose again. But now the bond market has moved the other way, and the yield spike dropped.

Friday, the lockstep move of bond and stock price broke down and stock prices rose solo. So maybe the stock selloff earlier this month is over. Or not. I don't want to suffer the curse of Cassandra whose warnings were always correct, but were never believed. Gold is again on the uptrend because it moves inversely to the US$ in which it is priced. My paid subscribers were told when I bought more gold.

More for paid subscribers follows with a company result from Germany and news from Belgium, Canada, Russia, Hong Kong, Israel, India, South Africa, Switzerland, China, Brazil and Colombia. There will be no blog Monday because of President's Day.

Allianz SE, the German insurer which owns most of the stock in Pimco, the US bond fund manager, benefited from the Pimco profits having recuperated the whole of what they lost after the walk-out of the bond king, Bill Gross. It continues to write lots of profitable life insurance policies. However for both Q4 and the full year, AZSEY suffered because of property & casualty insurance claim buildup because of disasters like hurricanes, earthquakes, floods in Europe, and fires in the US. Plus a sinking dollar.

Its operating profits for the year came in at 11.1 billion euros, marginally ahead of analyst consensus forecasts of euros 11.04 billion, down 2.3% y/y.

Operating profits at euros 6.8 billion for the quarter missed. Its Q4 profits missed because of the one-time impact of the US tax reform, and a weak dollar, as well as the P&C claims. Its net Q4 profit was euros 1.43 billion vs consensus forecasts (Reuters average) of 1.587 billion. This works out to $1.79 billion) but this was also because of the taxes over sale of Oldeburgishce Landesbank.

It expects current year at euros 10.6-11.6 billion, not a big change, according to CEO Oliver Baete. But it expects EPS to rise 11% to euros 16./share. It is confident that it can grow EPS 5% and fund buybacks from cost savings and a rise in its profit share from recently acquired Euler Hermes.

Pimco contributed euros 546 million in Q4, the highest level since the 2014 Q3 when Gross walked out and we bought AZSEY. Gross-lovers dropped Pimco from their holdings but over the past six quarters more investors have been buying because of the Pimco expertise and the need for smart strategies to earn interest in a low-yield market. Allianz asset management operating profits (which also include other fund managers) grew 8% in Q4, to euros 697 million and in the full year rose 11% to euros 2.44 million.

The dividend was raised 5% to euros 8/share. While AZSEY pulled out of investing in coal mines it indicated today that it will not stop insuring them. The theroy is that coal mining triggers global warming which causes the natural disasters, but of course it hasn't been proven.

After Thursday's note about the exit of Scottish Widows funds from Standard Life Aberdeen, I sold half my holdings at $20.43. It was after the blog came out but a second before the market closed. AZSEY sold its Taiwan and Korea asset management arms to SLFPY. Naturally it rose a few ticks today to $20.84.

Drugs

In the wake of the move into Teva by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, the troubled Israeli drug firm has gained another 1.4% Friday. It is time to take some money off the table, so sell half at $21.5 double its 52-week low. Mr. Buffett will only have to tell the world if he sells it 45 days after the next quarter, about April 15 under SEC rules. This is an extremely volatile stock.

Novartis is reportedly planning to sell its US generics business, because of price erosion, rather than spinning Sandoz off to shareholders as former CEO Joe Jimenez said last year. This is another reason to worry about generics.

Here is what to do with the money, another biotech pick from Martin Ferera along with commentary from our biotech maven and a Canada broker. This is a speculative stock:

NYSE-listed Zymeworks (ZYME) which listed last year is HQ'd in Vancouver (BC) and run by Ali Tehrani, who set out to create a rational drug development company more than 15 years ago. His start-up won finance from venture capitalists for his drug testing platform which combines computer simulation with a way to engineer protein molecules before the start of costly clinical trials. I invested in ZYME personally as a very small angel.

Even before it was listed deals were signed with drug majors: GlaxoSmithKline, Merck & Co, Ely Lilly, Celgene. Just what they were buying into is hard to know because the contracts were secret, but it is important to note that the intellectual property was ring-fenced and the deals covered very specific research. This gives ZYME cash up front and future milestones, but the deals make it clear that Zyme owns the research and it is a hard-headed negotiator, not willing to give the shop away to continue to do deals.

The majors don't throw their money around without considerable due diligence. ZYME recently hired as CMO a specialist in breast cancer at her former job with Cascadian Therapeutics, Diane Hausman.

There is also research Zyme is doing itself. One of its drug candidates is ZW25, an engineered bi-specific antibody to treat HER-2 negative breast cancer which has not responded to other treatments. A natural antibody is a molecule with two arms, whereas an engineered one has different molecules which make it more able to get past the defenses cancer uses when it takes over a patient's cells. This one is in phase II trials.

Its other lead candidate also for breast cancer and for gastrointestinal disorders, ZW33. This is an antibody carrying a drug, a cytotoxic chemical, which can be directly targeted at cancer cells rather than having to be used against all the patient's cells, as with chemotherapy. It is now in phase I trials. Both products have been given orphan drug status with tax breaks and a right to patents for seven years.

Meanwhile the drug partnerships are also moving to trials with two or even three planned to start this year.

ZYME shares soared early this year after it presented at a JP Morgan conference but it is now at a more reasonable level. The firm has hired an investor relations expert after their former IR from the IPO stopped answering my calls and those of others.

None of the management or the angels, even ones which have left the firm, have sold a single share. Nor have I.

After its further buy Eli Lilly owns over 15.5% of the shares and Celgene over 5%, another validation of ZYME. Johnson & Johnson and a Japanese drug firm joined the majors investing in Zymeworks after the IPO last April. BUY UNDER $10.

Vivian adds: ZYME will report earnings Feb. 28. With three analysts covering it, the consensus estimate is between plus $1.29 and minus $0.72 but the date is only tentative, from Wall Street Horizon. Our biotech maven, Patti, argues that “it has investigational trials in an area flooded with competitors and treatments. If it is proven safe and tolerable it is still years from the market. I doubt they will have resources to proceed and likely will license or pull out more shares to fund—why biotechs nosedive. They have linked their technology to six pharma companies which will then each conduct years of study to see if it can be applies to further research. Its a long way not only from profits but from a viable proof that its approach is worthwhile.”

Negative from a broker up north: ThreeD Capital of Canada is a supporter of ZYME but it is now getting into crypto-currencies. I am  buying all the same. The stock is substantially below the $13 at which it listed last April, at $9.74 Friday.

Roche, RHHBY, will get FDA action on its hemophilia A drug emicizumab on Feb. 23.

Technology

Wal-mart is in talks to buy a 40% stake in Indian e-commerce firm Flipkart, from among others Softbank of Japan, Microsoft, and Hong Kong-listed Tencent. Reuters figures the TCEHY stake may be worth $2.5 billion. Thanks to the Zexit, Naspers' discount to its stake in TCEHY has fallen also because NPSNY, a South African media group, also owns a bit of Flipcart directly as well as a third of the Hong Kong outfit.

Our most recent buy (before Friday) is HOLI. Hollysys Auto Tech gained 1.5%.

Food & Drink

Anhaeuser-Busch InBev rose 1.6% because it called $4.6 mn in 7.75% US$ notes. BUD is Belgian and its stock news is often hard to find under the ABV ticker used outside the USA.

Input Capital Corp, which reported both stock buybacks and insider purchases Thursday, rose 1.53% at the opening Friday.

Greencore of Ireland, which makes ready meals, gained 0.19%.

Mexican bakery MNC Grupo Bimbo lost 0.56%. This is the one you do not sell because of fear of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

Mines

Vale made a new 52-wk high Friday as attention focused on non-Chinese steel demand, including some from US infrastructure spending.

Under a new name, GMK Norilsky Nikel PAO, NILSY, lost 9% today, probably because of attacks on Oleg Deripaska by the anti-Putin Russian banned candidate, Alexei Navalny. It is at a p/e ratio of under 14x and yields 5.4%. I bought more at $19.35, a limit order put in (pun) before the slide Friday.

Antofagasta lost 0.41% Friday. Copper miner ANFGF of Chile has its primary listing in London.

SoQuiMich of Chile fell Friday, down 2.54% to $54.51. It is trying to get an investor to satisfy anti-trust demands from India and China. It mines potash and lithium. Nutrien, the Canada seller, is down only 0.75%. NTR is the one selling SQM shares.

And Argentina lithium miner Orocobre is down 0.64% perhaps because of the stronger yen. It holds its AGM down under on Feb. 26. Toyota of Japan is a minority shareholder.

In the oilpatch

BP is gaining market share with its new networks of gas stations in Mexico for a surprising reason, according to Eduardo Garcia writing in www.sentidocomun.com.mx which he edits. Unlike service stations run by Pemex, the government oil company, the BP ones give those filling their tanks the full measure of the gasoline they pay for in Quartero state. The same thing happens at Total or Exxon stations. But Pemex which used to have a national monopoly does not give the posted amount of gas for your Mexican pesos. Monopolies cheat. We trade newsletters with Eduardo.

As Colombia moves toward the first election in which former guerillas may run for office, note that the Ecopetrol Cano Limon oil pipeline has been shut because of a terrorist attack by the ELN, the fight-on guerillas, for 38 days. EC fell 2,5%

Funds

Baillie Gifford of Britain is launching a new investment trust to buy both listed and unlisted US company participation in pursuit of long-term capital growth. In theory US retail investors may buy UK Investment Trusts which trade like closed-end funds. Watch this space.

Aberdeen Chile Fund, into which a whole lot of emerging markets funds will be combined, is down 0.86% Friday, perhaps because of problems with the amount its parent manages (cf above) or maybe because of something Chilean. Its latest merger move is on GRR, the Asian Tiger fund. I'll miss that one although Asian tigers flopped in the 1990's.

Mexican Equity & Income Fund, MXE, doing a buyback, rose a half percent today. Its NAV may have gone up.