Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: How Far Will The USD/CAD Recovery Go?


It was a month ago now that USD/CAD had bottomed-out. While the pair had spent much of the prior 17 months trending-higher, sticking to a bullish trendline for much of the time, the month of June brought a strong change of pace as the US Dollar fell while the Canadian Dollar strengthened. Out of the US, the USD was being driven lower by the prospect of rate cuts from the FOMC, and in Canada, a strong inflation print highlighted the fact that the BoC likely wouldn’t be able to adopt a similar stance. In short-order, USD/CAD fell from a late-May high above 1.3500 all the way down to the 1.3000 handle in mid-July. At that point, sellers began to shy away from a test of the big figure and later in the month, a falling wedge formation had formed, pointing to the potential for a bullish reversal. That theme has played out and almost a month later, continues to hold.


usdcad weekly price chart

Chart prepared by James StanleyUSDCAD on Tradingview

Canadian inflation moderated in June, dropping back down to 2% after printing at 2.4% for the month of May. That 2.4% print is what helped to drive strength in the currency during that run in June, and the fact that this pulled back a bit is what’s helped CAD weakness to return over the past month. The next Canadian inflation print is due in a week, released next Wednesday morning at 8:30 AM ET. This will likely be the next major push point in the pair.

At this point, USD/CAD is finding resistance around the 50% retracement of that June-July sell-off, and this is around a series of support swings that showed-up in April and May of this year.


usdcad usd/cad daily price chart

Chart prepared by James StanleyUSDCAD on Tradingview


Given the month-long theme of strength in the pair following the aggressive sell-off that showed previously, and there could be scope for further recovery until the short-side of the pair comes back into favor. And taking a step back on the chart, there is a nearby zone of interest for longer-term resistance potential. This rests from the confluent area on the chart that runs from 1.3361-1.3385.

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