British Pound Surges On Likely Brexit Delay

Chart of GBP/USD (British pound vs U.S. dollar) - British Pound Surges on Likely Brexit Delay

Chart of GBP/USD (British pound vs U.S. dollar) – British Pound Surges on Likely Brexit Delay – Source: TheTechnicals.com and TradingView

Three UK Parliamentary Votes Possible This Week

On Tuesday, the UK Parliament will vote for a second time on British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal. This is the deal that outlines the terms of separation between the UK and the European Union. May was already humiliated earlier this year when her Brexit deal was resoundingly defeated in Parliament. Needless to say, there are few expectations that May’s deal will be passed this time around.

If it is indeed rejected again, as expected, another vote will be held on Wednesday to decide whether or not the UK should leave the EU without a deal. This is otherwise known as a “hard Brexit.” If that is also rejected, as it’s expected to be, a third parliamentary vote will be held on Thursday. That final vote would be to decide on whether to delay the Brexit deadline of March 29 (Brexit Day) for a few months. If the vote gets to this third stage, it is widely expected that there will indeed be a Brexit delay.

UK Economy and British Pound at Stake

As noted, there will potentially be three votes this week in Parliament that will help decide the fate of the UK’s economy. One of the key charts to watch amid this drama will be the GBP/USD (British pound vs U.S. dollar).

The pound rose sharply on Monday due in part to speculation that there will ultimately be a postponement of Brexit Day. This, of course, would happen only if both May’s deal and a hard Brexit are rejected first. Generally, the pound has reacted negatively in the past to the overall prospect of Brexit, but even more so to the possibility of a hard Brexit. This is due to fears that a hard Brexit could inflict severe damage on the UK’s economy.

With market expectations leaning increasingly towards a Brexit delay after the three parliamentary votes this week, the likelihood of a hard Brexit on March 29 has diminished, alleviating some weight from the pound.

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