Brexit Trifecta: May Rejects Corbyn's Customs Union Offer, What's Next?

Labour Splintered

Theresa May has effectively splintered the Labour party. Some want a new referendum, some want Brexit, and some want a custom's union.

Corbyn is now a clear loser in May's tactics.

Tories United

The other side of May's gambit is the Tories are now united. They still do not want her deal.

The Guardian reports Labour Slump Gives Tories Biggest Lead Since General Election.

The Conservatives have recorded their biggest lead since the last general election after support for Labour slumped by six points, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

Theresa May’s party recorded a seven-point lead over Labour in the poll, its biggest since the disastrous election campaign that left her without a majority and relying on the support of Northern Irish DUP MPs.

Labour’s support fell from 40% in the last poll to 34%, while Tory support went up from 37% to 41%. It comes despite continued infighting within the government over Brexit, including a record parliamentary defeat for the prime minister over her proposed deal.

Biggest Fears

The biggest fear for the Tories was a new election.

May's gambit remains what it has always been, to play on the fears of both sides such that they would support her silly deal.

IF IF IF

While May succeeded on one front, she categorically failed on another. She now needs to win over DUP and splinter the Tories.

If she can do that, then she wins.

Meanwhile, the clock is running down.

Remaining Options

  1. WTO-Brexit March 29
  2. WTO-Brexit delayed
  3. May's Deal March 29
  4. May's Deal Delayed

It's hard to accurately assess the odd, but as I stated long ago, another referendum is totally off the table.

We can also rule out the Norway option and Corbyn's customs union proposal.

Malthouse Compromise

The Malthouse Compromise is still on the table. The only way to rule it out is by agreement on May's deal.

On February 4, I wrote Excellent Brexit News: "Malthouse Compromise" Gains Support.

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