AVOIDING A ‘NO DEAL, HARD BREXIT’

The British Pound is rallying as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is said to have conceded demands on fisheries in order to help get a Brexit deal across the finish line. The previous demand that the UK retain some 60% of international fishing waters has been dropped to 33%, contingent upon the EU making concessions elsewhere; the EU’s position regarding fisheries has been steadfast at 25%.

Avoiding a ‘no deal, hard Brexit’ is a top priority for the UK, particularly as a new mutation of COVID-19 has sparked swift lockdowns in London and by foreign neighbors. At the time of writing, GBP/JPY and GBP/USD have reversed their daily losses – which exceeded -1% at times – and are now positive on the day.

GBP/JPY RATE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: DAILY CHART (DECEMBER 2019 TO DECEMBER 2020) (CHART 1)

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A lot of volatility has yielded little by way of direction in GBP/JPY through December. To this end, the forecast from early-December holds: “GBP/JPY rates have traded sideways through the second half of November, but the consolidation appears to be occurring within the context of a symmetrical triangle dating back to the March coronavirus pandemic low. Resistance has been found around 140.01, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020 high/low range. A bullish piercing candle on the daily chart on Monday, November 30 suggests that topside pressure remains. Similar to GBP/USD rates, traders should be on alert for bullish breakout potential in GBP/JPY rates. “

IG CLIENT SENTIMENT INDEX: GBP/JPY RATE FORECAST (DECEMBER 21, 2020) (CHART 2)

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GBP/JPY: Retail trader data shows 50.89% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.04 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 36.53% higher than yesterday and 20.63% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 17.29% lower than yesterday and 18.22% lower from last week.