Brexit: Early Elections Coming, But How Early?

Early elections in the UK are a given. How early? Before the end of the year, perhaps immediately.

Early Elections Chances

  1. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will soon submit a motion of no-confidence. If the motion is successful, there will be elections.
  2. Boris Johnson will call for elections this year if not triggered by a motion of no confidence.

Timing Matters

One of the above is guaranteed, but the timing is important.

1A: If Corbyn submits a motion of no confidence on July 25, and the motion succeeds, there will be time to hold elections and stop Brexit, if Corbyn wins.

1B: Recess starts at the end of the session on July 25. Corbyn's next chance for a motion of no confidence would be September 3. Starting September 4, there may not be enough time remaining to hold an election and undo Brexit. Johnson could run out the clock. I have September 10 as the absolute last chance. But if the election is on a Thursday, then September 3 is the mathematical last chance because October 31 is a Thursday.

2A: Johnson could immediately call for elections. If he does he would then campaign on a deliver Brexit platform.

2B: Johnson could wait until September 10 or later, ask for new elections, and run out the clock.

2C: Johnson could wait until after October then call for new elections, having delivered Brexit.

Odds

It is very hard to determine the odds. It would take a number of Tories willing to end their careers for a motion of no confidence to immediately succeed.

There are also a couple Labour Party members who would either abstain or vote against the motion. This too could end their careers, but one of them, a staunch Brexiteer has already proclaimed that is what she would do as sh is retiring anyway.

I suspect 2B or 2C is most likely and 1B the least likely.

If Corbyn has the votes, he will opt for 1A. If not, 1B would likely not be in time to stop Brexit which is why I have that as the least likely scenario.

Johnson's Choice

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Disclaimer: The content on Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including ...

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