E Bitcoin’s Value: Probably A Lot Higher Than You Think

Does this mean Bitcoin’s market cap will be worth $40 trillion one day? Probably not any time soon, at least. But can Bitcoin capture some, 10, 25% or maybe even half of this market share in the next 10-15 years? I think so. At, 10% market share Bitcoin would have a valuation of $4 trillion, at 25% Bitcoin’s market cap would be $10 trillion, and at 50% Bitcoin would have a staggering market value of roughly $20 trillion. So, how much would one Bitcoin be worth according to these estimates?

1 Bitcoin at $4 trillion market cap is worth: $240,000
1 Bitcoin at $10 trillion market cap is worth: $600,000
1 Bitcoin at $20 trillion market cap is worth: $1,200,000

Essentially, Bitcoin would need to appreciate by 100 times from its current valuation to capture 50% of the readily available global medium of exchange and store of value market.

Will this happen in a couple of years? Probably not. Could this happen in 10-15 years? Yes, I think so, and here is why:

When a new, better, more efficient, and more beneficial invention or technology comes along it is only natural for it to capture market share from the older, less favorable technology. We’ve seen this countless times before, Amazon and bookstores, email and correspondence letters, smartphones and cellphones, we’re now seeing it with electric cars and ICE vehicles, and we will see this with digital currencies and fiat currencies going forward.

Just because Bitcoin is not perfect does not mean it’s not better. The fundamental technology beneath Bitcoin, its decentralized nature, and its unprecedented capabilities make it a much better alternative to fiat currencies, and in large part to gold as well. Therefore, Bitcoin should continue to appreciate and capture more market share in its respective segments until it gets to a valuation consistent with its long-term functionality prospects, consisting of being the world’s predominant global store of value and a worldwide medium of exchange.

Price Targets

2018 end of year price target range for Bitcoin: $35,000 - $50,000
2030-2035 price target range $500,000 - $1,000,000
 

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Ebs 2 years ago Member's comment

Bitcoin and Blockchain will be the future of what we call "Money"!!!

BreakingBad News 2 years ago Member's comment

You may very well be right. But I saw that Dr. Duru, said that #bitcoin fell to $6k today and Ernie Varitimos said it could drop to under $3k soon. So that future may be farther away than you think. Hard to believe it was once going for $19k!

David J. Tanner 2 years ago Member's comment

It can still be the future without it be so overvalued. A $19,000 price level is ridiculous to me, just as a $3,000 price level. What currency trades at those kinds of levels? A $1 per bitcoin would make far more sense to me.

Michele Grant 2 years ago Member's comment

Richard Shaw was kind enough to share this article with me:

money.cnn.com/.../index.html

Looks like hackers stole $530 million worth of digital currency yesterday. That's even more than the famous $400 million hack of Mt. Gox back in 2014. This is one of the greatest risks of #cryptocurrency and why I enjoy the peace of mind of my FDIC insured #cash.

Duke Peters 2 years ago Member's comment

Every time I think bitcoin can't go any higher, it does!

Barry Hochhauser 2 years ago Member's comment

I know, there is no end in site.

Michele Grant 2 years ago Member's comment

It is unbelievable to me how #Bitcoin keeps going up and up. Don't people realize all the risks involved? This is not a real currency, could easily be hacked, and governments could deem it illegal at any moment. $BITCOMP

Victor Dergunov 2 years ago Author's comment

If Bitcoin is not a real currency, then what is? And what make it a real currency and not Bitcoin? Also, bitcoin exchanges can get hacked not the actual Bitcoin blockchain/network. The major governments where the bulk of Bitcoin action occurs, U.S., Japan are going to have difficulty deeming it illegal after legitimizing Bitcoin.

Michele Grant 2 years ago Member's comment

Here are some articles which have helped to shape my view on #bitcoin and the #crypcurrency craze:

Why Bitcoin Is Not A Real Currency

by Modest Money

www.talkmarkets.com/.../why-bitcoin-is-not-a-real-currency

When Someone Asks, 'Should I Own Bitcoin?'

By Richard Shaw : www.talkmarkets.com/.../when-someone-asks-should-i-own-bitcoin

Bitcoin Can't Win Against Fiat Currency

By Richard Bookstaber

www.talkmarkets.com/.../bitcoin-cant-win-against-fiat-currency

Also some very good articles by Mish Shedlock and The Heisenberg Report.

Alpha Stockman 2 years ago Member's comment

I found this article by James Altucher to be very helpful in explaing Bitcoin:

www.talkmarkets.com/.../everything-you-need-to-know-about-bitcoin

Nathan Feifel has some good stuff too.

Anastasija Janevska 2 years ago Member's comment

Thank you for the tip.

Nathan Feifel 2 years ago Contributor's comment

Thank you!

Barry Hochhauser 2 years ago Member's comment

The question is, did the guy who sold the pizzas for 10,000 #bitcoins, still have those bitcoins? If so, being valued at $120 million now, I bet he's no longer selling pizzas!

Moon Kil Woong 2 years ago Contributor's comment

Tearing down the bitcoin structure is not most governments attempt. What they are fighting against is the illicit use of crypto as with other forms of monetary exchange that violate sanctions (S. Korea), cut holes in foreign exchange policies (China), avoid taxes (US and European countries), or support criminal and illegal things. These things have to be addressed. The sooner they are resolved the better for everyone. You can't just shrug your shoulders as N. Korea uses crypto to funnel money to building nuclear weapons and missiles to threaten the US. That is the main why South Korea is desperate to stop the illicit flow until it is fixed along with the suspicion N. Korea is amassing a stockpile to potentially attack their economy if it becomes too big and influential in their economy.

Currency Trader 2 years ago Member's comment

Moon Kil Woong, the issues that you stated can not be resolved. The whole purpose of #cryptocurrency is avoid gonverment regution and a paper trail. Without that, all you have is #Paypal or #ApplePay.

Moon Kil Woong 2 years ago Contributor's comment

There will be solutions, although a bit artificial, contrived, or enforced. We already see solutions although they are not beautiful and takes away some of the benefits to its freedom.

Terrence Howard 2 years ago Member's comment

Would love to hear your ideas for solutions. And have there been any concrete moves by governments to take any sort of action one way or the other?

Flat Broke 2 years ago Member's comment

I just read in this article here: www.talkmarkets.com/.../heres-why-crypto-is-correcting--and-why-its-temporary

by Adam Sharp, that South Korea has banned annoymous crypto currency trading. Though for the life of me, I don't understand how that would work. Perhaps someone here can explain it to me.

Terrence Howard 2 years ago Member's comment

I'm far from an expert in bitcoin or crypto currencies. Perhaps the author, Victor Dergunov or one of the other experts here knows more

Currency Trader 2 years ago Member's comment

Can you give some examples? For the life of me, I can't think of any solutions that would rectify these problems without inherently and fundamentally changing what cryocurrencies are.

Carl Schwartz 2 years ago Member's comment

I can't think of a thing either. Solving one problem would only create another. It's really a tradeoff of anonymity vs. control.