Australian Dollar Price Outlook: Aussie Bears Testing AUD/USD Support

The Australian Dollar is the worst performing currency among the majors against the US Dollar since the start of the week with Aussie down more than 0.3% in heading into the open of New York trad. The decline takes price towards key support zones just lower and the risk for downside exhaustion is mounting if the broader outlook is to remains constructive. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD price charts. 


(Click on image to enlarge)

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD Daily - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that the broader focus in Aussie was on a, “break of the 6851-6927 range for guidance with the broader outlook weighted to the topside in Aussie while above 6809.” AUD/USD is testing this bottom of this range today and we’re looking for a reaction. A close below would keep the focus on a more significant confluence zone / broader bullish invalidation near pitchfork support at 6809/21- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the October advance and the 61.8% extension of the decline off the December high. Note that daily RSI has continued to hold above the 40-threshold since the October lows – look to see if we maintain this constructive momentum profile.


(Click on image to enlarge)

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD 240min - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Aussie price action sees AUD/USD carving a weekly opening-range above near-term support at 6851. A break lower from here would expose key support at 6809/21- an area of interest for possible downside exhaustion / long-entries IF reached. Initial resistance stands with monthly trendline / weekly high at 6889 – a breach/close above this level would shift the focus back towards the 6924/27 resistance pivot – look for a bigger reaction there with a breach needed to put the bulls back in control.

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