Australian And Chinese Central Banks Impact Stocks; The Bad Luck Of The Irish Executive

Millionaire Vincent Balloré is backing a new venture by his eponymous firm in Paris and now London: rechargeable electric cars. Starting next year, in addition to Boris bikes in London and Vel'libs in Paris, people will be able to rent cars for an hour or two at a time. And unlike other systems run by car rental firms like Avis, the as yet unnamed London Balloré version will not require that renters return the car to the same charging station.

Cost will be £10/hour. The Balloré Paris electric car, called "Autolib", is the star of the recent anti-smog campaign. Unless a car has 3 or more passengers, it can only be used on odd or even days this week (based on the license plate number.) But non-polluting electric cars are exempt. The City of Lights is suffering from Los Angeles-style inversion. Its mayor has also made all public transport (buses, metro, and in-city RER) free for Parisians to improve the air quality.

 

Currencies matter a lot, especially when investing (as we do) globally.

Today's developments include a climb-down by the Westpac Bank's chief currency strategist Down Under, Billy Evans. He withdrew his forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia (their central bank or CB) would cut interest rates. With employment rising in Oz, he now thinks a yield cut "faces a high hurdle."

Last week China created a "wrong-way" risk for currency trades. The People's Bank of China, the CB, increased the daily spread for fluctuation in China's Renminbi (RMB or Yuan) to 2% each way from the morning fixing against the US$. Earlier, the spread was only 1% each way.

So in the course of a day, the RMB now can move as much as 4%. This increases the CB's flexibility as it will not have to intervene in markets as much.

But there is another motive: to stop the yuan going only one way against the Greenback, up, as it did before 2014 for years. Chinese speculators could count on near-certain gains if they bought ever-strengthening RMB against dollars temporarily. Lately the RMB has tended to fall which might have encouraged Chinese to speculate by buying dollars or engage in capital flight. Now Chinese speculators can't be certain that they got the best inter-day price.

There is another reason: China is losing its export edge as the RMB rises, and this is worrying Beijing. Moreover it wants to ease up the controls on its finance sector by liberalizing interest rates and letting other vehicles compete with bank deposits.

And ultimately a global role for the RMB will require that the currency be tradable and variable.

We are playing both a stronger A$ (the result of continued high interest rates) and Chinese export strength.

More for paid subscribers follows from Hong Kong, Indonesia, Australian, South Africa, Canada, Israel, Britain, the Netherlands, Mongolia, and (of course on St. Patrick's Day) Ireland.

*The impact of steady Australian interest rates will increase the appeal of ourAberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund, ~40% invested in national and local government bonds from Down Under. FAX.

 

*It should also add to the appeal of ute, Origin Energy, OGFGF, which will sell liquefied coal seam gas to China under fixed price contract including Chinese investment in the pipeline and plant.

 

*Other China plays are feeling mixed impact from the new liberalization of exchange rates. The money market funds business of Tencent has been banned as part of the reforms, which has hurt both TCTZF and its 30%-owner, Naspers, NPSNY, of South Africa.

 

*However, China's Guangshen Railway, which chugs along the Pearl River Basin, is up because exports should pick up when the RMB falls or fails to rise. GSH will also lose from its embedded RMB investment but higher tariffs can offset this. More railway news below.

 

*Cheaper Chinese silicon wafers and photovoltaic cells give a new light to Canadian Solar which sells Chinese products for global utes and roofs.

CSIQ also gains because Electrovaya (EFL:TSX) a manufacturer of lithium ion batteries, will partner with it for a micro-grid project. Electrovaya will provide a 200 kiloWatt/hr energy storage system using its lithium ion SuperPolymer(R)2.0 technology. This will integrate renewable energy generation with energy storage for micro-grids and utilities. The project will be funded by the Ontario Ministry of Energy Smart Grid Fund which backs innovative provincial power projects fostering economic development.

Electrovaya makes lithium battery and energy storage systems serving the transport, consumer, and healthcare markets via its proprietary non-toxic manufacturing process. Founded in Mississauga by Indian-heritage Canadians in 1996, it is a fitting partner form Canadian Solar which was created by Chinese-heritage Canadians. Both firms sell worldwide.

 

*This adds to the aura of Australia's Orocobre, OROCF, whose Argentina lithium mine will begin production in the next quarter.

 

*Its antitrust authority today announced plans to review Liberty Global Media's planned euros 6.9 bn ($9.6 bn) acquisition of Dutch co. Ziggo, the the Euro-regulator tries to work out how to handle the EU's consolidating telecoms. The Commission, which received information on the LBTYA Jan. deal, has until April 23 to approve it or investigate it further or to refer it to the Dutch authorities.

Merging with Ziggo would make Liberty a Dutch giant, covering 90% of Dutch households, as it already owns the no. 2 cable firm, UPC.

The Dutch competition overseer wants to review the deal as it affects national interests. The Hague also reviewed the 2007 merger forming Ziggo from 3 Dutch cable operators. Pundits argue that the Dutch would focus on the local impact on markets while the EU would view markets across borders. Cable companies increasingly compete with fixed-line and mobile telcos, and satellite TV.

My NYC cable firm Time Warner,is being bought by Comcast, in which I own shares, subject to regulatory approval. The combo faces competition from telco Verizon's new FIOS (fiberoptic) lines. Each cable company has its own network.

We tried to reduce the size of our stock list by selling the LBTYK shares from when John Malone's firm bought out Virgin Media. But we got new C shares in an A share stock split and they're back.

 

*South African state-owned Transnet SOC, the ports and rail operator, picked 4 suppliers, two Chinese, one US, and one a Canadian for new locomotives under a $4.7 bn investment plan for renewing its fleet and boosting capacity. GE and CNR will supply 465 diesel locomotives. Bombardier and CSR Zhuzhou will supply 599 electric ones. Most will be built in South Africa. The breakdown was not given. We own BDRAF.

 

*Teva will invest $20 mn in clinical trials alongside the UK National Health Service (NHS) Office for Clinical Research Infrastructure at Britain's National Institute for Health Research (NIHR). Teva announced the accord during a visit to its Jerusalem plant by Prime Ministers Benjamin Netanyahu and David Cameron last week.

Teva will use NIHR's new translational research infrastructure to set up and run studies and access NHS patients. NIHR was set up as a new single entry point for NHS clinical studies. Teva plans a 3-yr research program into dementia, funding up $1 mn for early stage research at UK medical centers. The aim is to understand targets, mechanisms, and new treatments for different types of dementia. Under the accord, Teva will get access to dementia research from NIHR for which it can negotiate licenses of target products or procedures. We are delighted to collaborate with NIHR on both clinical development and early dementia research. It will be a catalyst for innovation to take place within a healthcare system that is admired the world over, said Teva Global R&D prexy, Chief Scientific Officer Dr. Michael Hayden.

 

*GlaxoSmithKline plans to stop paying for doctors to run seminars at fun spots for their colleagues, but it still wants medicos to spread the word about its drugs. According to Bloomberg, GSK is hiring physicians to its in-house marketing staff in the place of external speakers. The UK pharma giant will stop paying outside doctors to boost its products under a broad reform of marketing practices which hurt its reputation.Two years ago, new management agreed to pay $3 bn exit a US DoJ investigation of off-label drug peddling. Last year GSK's Chinese operations were hit by charges of bribery and corruption using travel agents to pay doctors and hospitals for prescribing its drugs. The US reforms, begun 3 years ago, will now go global. No speaking fees for doctors, unless they are on GSK's payroll.

 

*Top Paddy Power exec Jack Massey sold ¬3.3 mn worth of shares last week. This despite the bookie beating punters who lost money on the favorites at Cheltenham. He sold 55,000 shares at ¬59.75 and later PDYPF won against betters on 3 horses which lost: Hurricane Fly, Annie Power, and Bob's Worth. This turned out to have been the bad luck of the Irish.

In the last quarter, Paddy was hurt by favorites' wins, having to pay out to punters. The sale may not have been over Cheltenham. Like other UK betting shops, Paddy faces new regulations imposing higher UK taxes. Today's Financial Times worries that Paddy's profits will be nipped by more TV ad spending. But by offering outrageous bets (currently on the outcome of the Pistorius trial in South Africa, which led to a call for a crackdown) Paddy gets free publicity. On St. Patrick's Day, in Dublin trading, PDYPF rose 2.28% to ¬60.45. Time to hold not to fold.

*Agrium was upgraded by Cowen & Co from "underperform" rating to "market perform".

 

*Mongolia Growth Group Chairman Harris Kupperman and newly appointed CEO, Paul Byrne, will do a multi-city road show together. MNGGF in the USA; YAK up north. My plan is to go the Monday March 31 session the TKP New York Conference Center in the East Village Room, 109 West 39th St. at 5:30 pm. Contact christy@mongoliagrowthgroup.com

 

*We bought iShares Poland Capped ETF, EPOL, today at $29.2187/sh. AGU.

 

*We sold the remainder of our PT Semen Indonesia, PSGTY, shares at $29 this morning.

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