AUD/USD Weekly Forecast: Will Bulls Keep Up?

AUD/USD Highlights

  • AUD/USD pared some losses by the end of the week. 
  • The NFP report provided some support to the pair for the time being. 
  • RBA, the Fed’s meeting minutes, and the US ISM survey are major risk events in the next week. 

The Australian dollar stood through an entire week under the dominance of bears. The AUD/USD pair fell below the 0.7500 psychological mark and tested the Dec. 21 low of 0.7445. The downtrend stemmed from Fed Chair Powell’s comments last week which triggered a rally in the greenback across the board.

However, a nonfarm payroll report for the US came out and turned the market upside-down. Although the pair closed in the red, it was able to catch some bids at the end of the session.

AUD/USD on NFP

Employers were able to add 850 thousand new jobs in the US economy, which has served as the strongest figure since August 2020. The momentum has clearly picked up over the past two months.

Despite a sharp rise in payrolls, the unemployment rate rose to 5.9%. The rise emerged from household measures of employment that dropped to 18 thousand. Thus, although the labor supply increased, the reduction in unemployment will take more time.

The AUD/USD pair picked up bids from eight-month lows amid discouraging figures of unemployment. The upbeat jobs addition could not help the greenback rally to continue. The pair has pared off some of the weekly losses.

What to Watch Next Week?

The RBA meeting next week can also be decisive for the pair to find the directional bias. It should be noted here that on Monday, July 5, American trading floors will be closed. The US will continue to celebrate the public holiday (Independence Day).

The next day, during the Asian session on Tuesday, the RBA will announce its verdict on the prospects for monetary policy. For AUD/USD traders, this means that the pair may show increased volatility in the near future. On the other hand, the US ISM survey and Fed meeting minutes are also important events next week that may provide fresh impetus to the market.

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