AUD/USD Outlook Mired By Deviating Paths Between RBA & FOMC

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR TALKING POINTS

AUD/USD extends the decline following the larger-than-expected contraction in Australia employment as fresh data prints coming out of the US fuel speculation for an imminent shift in monetary policy.

AUD/USD OUTLOOK MIRED BY DEVIATING PATHS BETWEEN RBA & FOMC

AUD/USD trades to a fresh monthly low (0.7274) as US Retail Sales unexpectedly increases 0.7% in August, and the exchange rate may face a further decline ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on September 22 as the central bank appears to be on track to scale back monetary support.

The FOMC may layout a tentative exit strategy as the rise in household consumption indicates a robust recovery, and the update to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) may heighten the appeal of the US Dollar if Fed officials show a greater willingness to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) seems to be on a preset course as the central bank plans to carry out its government bond purchase program at a pace of A$4B a week “until at least mid-February 2022,” and Governor Philip Lowe and Co. may keep the door open to further support the economy as job growth contracts for the second time this year.

In turn, the diverging paths for monetary policy may keep AUD/USD under pressure as Fed officials project two rate hikes for 2023, but a further decline in the exchange rate may fuel the recent flip in retail sentiment like the behavior seen earlier this year.

Image of IG Client Sentiment for AUD/USD rate

The IG Client Sentiment report shows 54.01% of traders are currently net-long AUD/USD, with the ratio of traders long to short standing at 1.17 to 1.

The number of traders net-long is 2.69% lower than yesterday and 7.65% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.83% lower than yesterday and 11.05% lower from last week. The rise in net-long interest has fueled the recent flip in retail sentiment as 51.12% of traders were net-long AUD/USD earlier this week, while the decline in net-short position comes as the exchange rate trades to a fresh monthly low (0.7274).

1 2
View single page >> |

Disclosure: See the full disclosure for DailyFX here.

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.