AUD/USD Forecast November 18-22 – Aussie Remains Under Pressure

AUD/USD posted losses for a second straight week. This week’s key event is the RBA minutes. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

In Australia, confidence indicators pointed upwards. NAB Business Confidence climbed from zero to 2 points, while Westpac Consumer Sentiment jumped 4.5%, after decline of 4.5% a month earlier. However, employment numbers were weak. Employment change fell by 19.0, compared to an estimate of +16,200. The unemployment rate rose from 5.2% to 5.3%.

In the U.S., the focus was on consumer inflation and spending reports. CPI improved to 0.4%, above the estimate of 0.3%. This was the strongest monthly gain since March. The core reading ticked higher to 0.2%, up from 0.1%. This matched the estimate. Retail sales reports were mixed. Retail sales rebounded with a gain of 0.3%, up from -0.3% a month earlier. This beat the estimate of 0.1%. The core reading improved to 0.2%, up from -0.1%. However, it missed the forecast of 0.3%.

AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. CB Leading Index: Monday, 15:30. This index is based on seven economic indicators. In September, the index posted a small gain of 0.2%. We will now receive the October data.
  2. RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 0:30. The minutes will provide details of the RBA policy earlier in November, when the RBA maintained rates at 0.75%. The Australian economy is weak and investors will be looking for hints regarding further rate cuts.
  3. MI Leading Index: Tuesday, 23:30. This Melbourne Institute indicator has struggled, with only one gain in the past six months. Will we see a gain in the October release?

*All times are GMT

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 0.7240.

0.7165 has held firm since early April.

0.7085 has held since July. 0.7022 is next.

0.6988 is protecting the symbolic 70 level.

0.6865 (mentioned last week) is next.

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