AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 30-Dec. 4 – Aussie SurgesTo 3-Month High

AUD/USD jumped 1.0% last week and reached a high of 0.7399, its highest level in three months. The upcoming week is busy, with eight events. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD (FXA).

In Australia, manufacturing and services PMIs remained well into expansionary territory, with readings of 56.1 and 54.9, respectively. Construction Work Done posted a 10th straight decline, as construction remains in a prolonged slump. Private Capital Expenditure continues to show declines and came in at -3.0% in the third quarter.

In the US, PMIs for October indicated stronger growth in the manufacturing and services sectors. Services PMI improved to 57.7, as the index accelerated for a seventh straight month. Manufacturing PMI climbed to 56.7, up significantly from 53.3 beforehand. Both PMIs were well into expansionary territory, which indicates that the economic recovery continues to gain traction. Unemployment claims climbed for a second straight week, with a reading of 778 thousand. This was much higher than the estimate of 732 thousand. Durable goods orders reports were mixed. The headline figure slowed to 1.3%, down from 1.9%. However, the core release climbed from 0.8% to 1.3%.

The week wrapped up with the FOMC minutes of the November policy meeting. The minutes showed that officials did not believe any changes were needed to the current bond-purchase scheme of $120 billion/month, At the same time, they were of the opinion that “circumstances could shift to warrant such adjustments.”   

AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it

  1. MI Inflation Gauge: Monday, 00:00. The Melbourne Institute indicator is a useful gauge for tracking inflation on a monthly basis. Inflation declined by 0.1% in October, the first decline since May. Will we see an improvement in November?
  2. Chinese Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 1:00. The Manufacturing PMI was almost unchanged in November, with a reading of 51.4, which indicates a very slight expansion. The estimate for December stands at 51.6 points.
  3. AIG Manufacturing Index: Monday, 21:30. The Australian Industry Group climbed to 56.3 in October, up sharply from 46.7. A reading above the neutral 50-level indicates expansion. We now await the November release.
  4. Current Account: Tuesday, 00:30. Australia’s current account surplus surged to A$17.7 billion in Q2. Analysts are projecting a much smaller surplus in Q3, with a forecast of A$7.2 billion.
  5. RBA Decision: Tuesday, 3:30. The RBA is expected to maintain interest rates at the record level of 0.10%. Investors will be keeping a close eye on the rate statement, which could provide clues as to future monetary moves.
  6. GDP: Wednesday, 00:30. Australia’s economy fell by 7.0% in Q2, as Covid-19 was responsible for a sharp economic downturn. The economy is expected to rebound in Q3, with an estimate of 2.4%.
  7. AIG Construction Index: Wednesday, 21:30. The index climbed into expansionary territory in October, with a reading of 52.7, its highest level since May 2018. Will the upswing continue in November?
  8. Retail Sales: Friday, 00:30. Retail sales bounced back in September with a gain of 1.6%. This ended a nasty streak of four successive declines. The forecast for October stands at 0.5%.
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