AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 7-11 – Aussie GDP Rebounds In Q3

AUD/USD rose for a fourth successive week and pushed above the 0.74 level. The upcoming week has five events. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The RBA held the course at its policy meeting, as policymakers maintained interest rates at the ultra-low level of 0.10%. GDP showed a 3.3% gain in Q3, surpassing the consensus of 2.5%. Retail sales posted a solid gain of 1.4%, well above the estimate of 0.5%.

The US manufacturing sector continued to grow, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 57.9, although this was weaker than the previous release of 59.3 points. The ISM Services PMI fell to 55.9, down from 56.6 points. Still, this was a sixth straight month of expansion. In testimony on Capitol Hill, Federal Reserve Chair Powell reiterated his message for further fiscal stimulus support from the federal government. Nonfarm payrolls dropped to 245 thousand, down sharply from 638 thousand. This missed the estimate of 480 thousand. Wage growth surprised with a gain of 0.3%, above the estimate of 0.1%.                                                                                                                                                        .

AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. 

  1. AIG Services Index: Sunday, 23:30. The index jumped to 51.4 in October, up sharply from 36.2 beforehand. It was the first reading in expansionary territory (above 50) since November 2018. Will we see another positive reading in November?
  2. ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 2:30.  The indicator continues to strengthen, improving to 9.4% in October. Will the upswing continue in the November release?
  3. NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 2:30. The National Australia Bank indicator rebounded in October with a reading of 5, ending a nasty streak of three consecutive declines. We now await the November data.
  4. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Wednesday, 1:30. Consumer confidence slowed to 2.5% in November, down sharply from 11.9% beforehand. Investors are hopeful for another reading in positive territory.
  5. MI Inflation Expectations: Thursday, 2:00. The Melbourne Institute release is a useful gauge of actual inflation levels. The indicator edged up to 3.5% in October, up from 3.4% beforehand. Will the upswing continue in the November reading?
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