Assessing Laura’s Damage: The Corn & Ethanol Report

We start off the day with Personal Income MoM (July), Personal Spending MoM (July), Goods Trade Balance Adv. (July), PCE Price Index YoY & MoM (July), Core Price Index YoY & MoM (July) at 7:30 A.M., Chicago PMI (August) at 8:45 A.M., Michigan Consumer Expectations Final (August), Michigan Five-Year Expectations Final (August), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (August), Michigan Inflation Expectations Final (August), Michigan Current Conditions Final (August) at 9:00 A.M., and Baker Hughes Oil and Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M.

Hurricane Laura slammed the Gulf of Mexico coast with winds up to 150 mph, sending walls of seawater miles inland as the Category 4 made landfall just after midnight, and knocking out power to more than 500,000 customers in Louisiana and Texas.

Lake Charles of Louisiana was hit hard, and a plant near the city that produces chlorine for swimming pools was in flames, sending grey clouds billowing. Louisiana governor John Bel Edwards warned local residents to close their windows, doors, and shut off air conditioners, “There is a chemical fire,” he wrote on twitter.

Meanwhile, Texas refineries and ports are also assessing damage after Laura. SETX plants reported emission releases pre-Laura shut downs. Most of the major refineries near Texas’s eastern Gulf Coast reported minimal damage early Friday morning as Laura veered east before it landed in Cameron, Louisiana.

More damage reports will be updated during the trading session and in the coming days. Predicting the damage this early will be difficult. In the overnight electronic session, the October crude oil is currently trading at 4303, which is 1 tic lower. The trading range has been 4317 to 4275.

On the Natural Gas front, the damage control verdict here is still out and the assessments will be trickling in. The energy complex will be updating damage to offshore rigs, ports, refineries, and pipelines. In the overnight electronic session, the October natural gas is currently trading at 2.720, which is .010 higher. The trading range has been 2.743 to 2.680.

On the Corn Front, Iowa did not see much rain coverage in last night’s scattered showers in the Tri-State area of Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois. There is a forecast with temperatures in the low 90’s and thunderstorms for Iowa, but other forecasts are predicting that the northwest Corn Belt will receive less than an inch of rain in the next ten days.

Parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Minnesota could also use some much-needed rain. We also will be monitoring China purchases, as talk on the street is they sold all of corn stockpiles on hand at auction. This could be yet another sign that Phase 1 of the Trade Deal is working the way it was designed for. This would be welcome news to the U.S. farmer at this point.

In the overnight electronic session, the December corn is currently trading at 357 ¾, which is ¾ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 359 to 356 ¾.

On the Ethanol Front, a group of Brazilian lawmakers made a final push to convince President Jair Bolsonaro not to reduce tariffs on American ethanol ( A major Trump administration request). This could create U.S. tariffs in the Brazilian sugar market, which is also the main bioproduct in Brazil’s ethanol.

Brazil’s sugar cane industry does not want this to happen and has been lobbying to end the tariffs. This also comes at a time when U.S. Congressman Dr. Roger Marshall, who is co-chairman of the House Biofuels Caucus, is working to boost U.S. ethanol exports. There were no trades in the overnight electronic session.

The September contract settled at 1.279 and is currently showing 1 bid at 1.260, and 1 offer at 1.370, with Open Interest dropping to 37 contracts.

Disclosure: None

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