E Are Policy 'Refugees' Jumping The Trump Tariff Ship?

1. The world is preparing to jump ship with regard to cooperation with America. This seems somewhat unlikely on the surface. Certainly though, it is always the USA that seeks to sanction over this or that misdeed. I am not making a moral judgement about this sanctioning process. But I am pointing out that it is a process that seems to be shunned by the rest of the world. It is a process that older civilizations appear, for the most part, to be abandoning.

2. China trades with a large, peaceful Muslim nation. As Trump pushes Indonesia away, it looks to China for trade. While China is reported to have mistreated some Muslims within its borders, it appears to have good relations with a number of Muslim nations, including Pakistan, Indonesia, and others. It appears that China is clearly benefiting from Trump's tariff behavior. China may not back down, because it simply does not need to back down. China can simply wait Trump out.

3. The US may return to pragmatism one day, but that is unlikely in a complete sense. Saudi Arabia has angered many with its treatment of women and the killing of a journalist who was a permanent legal resident of the USA,  The Saudi government needs to change because it is making it difficult for the United States to maintain pragmatism in the face of its unacceptable behavior. But on the other hand, as long as the US wants to exert control other sovereign nations, it is destined to set itself back economically. We are idealistic for the most part, but the world is pragmatic. That pragmatism is forged out of economic necessity.

The world is becoming a more peaceful place, while the USA is becoming a more belligerent nation. Since the USA is the nation with the most physical power, this presents a big problem for future world peace. There are no easy answers.

Look to emerging markets as a source of economic growth and investment. It may be a little too soon to do anything but speculate. There could be a major slowdown in world growth. US policies, coupled with the end of the business cycle, should be weighed in any investment decisions. After all, globalization without US involvement will look very different. 

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Disclosure: I have no financial interest in any companies or industries mentioned. I am not an investment counselor nor am I an attorney so my views are not to be considered investment ...

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Gary Anderson 6 months ago Author's comment

Update 1: It appears that Netanyahu has distanced himself from Trump's Iran military action. I am surprised, but did Bibi's tough talk on Iran emboldened Trump? It may prove out that Donald Trump was snookered into action that could endanger him personally, all to please Israel. Only time may show if this brief analysis is correct.

Beating Buffett 6 months ago Member's comment

Really? Where did you see that? For as long as I can remember, Bibi has been pushing the world to take a tougher stance with Iran!

Gary Anderson 6 months ago Author's comment

Exactly. That is why his turnaround is so puzzling. It is almost like he put Trump up to it and then didn't want to have any part of it. Articles are everywhere about this, BB.

Moon Kil Woong 1 year ago Contributor's comment

Sadly the US is driving a lot of global trade towards China due to our International policies of playing hardball with our allies. The worst is our decreasing relations with Europe which is increasingly buying direct from Asia now which will hurt our US band name products and our margins.

Cynthia Decker 1 year ago Member's comment

Interesting that you think sanctions are falling out of favor elsewhere. Do you think that's because they believe they don't work?

Texan Hunter 1 year ago Member's comment

They do work. They got North Korea and Iran to the negotiating table and got Libya to throw in the towel. The rest of the world simply doesn't have the stomach for sanctions because either they have no backbone, or because they'd rather have cheap oil and profits from other business deals even if it means turning a blind eye to abuses, than doing what's right.

Gary Anderson 1 year ago Author's comment

I sympathize with your moral sensibility. But the US has supported dictators because of pragmatic concerns and does so today. Since the USA seems to be making the most war these days, for selfish reasons, we cannot very well reason that moral sanctions are better for world peace than is patient pragmatism.

Gary Anderson 1 year ago Author's comment

I am not an expert on the significance of sanctions in history, the effectiveness of sanctions in history. But it is clear that they interfere with economic progress and cooperation.