A Global Market Crash In 2019? 5 Must-See Charts

Global markets look shaky. Global stocks were volatile this year, and even U.S. stocks have followed their path lower in recent months. The million dollar question is whether this will result in a global market crash in 2019 or whether this is the end of a weak period. Based on these five charts we want to make a point about the probability of a global market crash in 2019, and indicate which leading indicators to watch.

InvestingHaven’s recent analysis of the important and violet global market crashes recent decades shows that any important crash started with weakness in currency and credit markets.

In other words any attempt to forecast a global market crash starts with a thorough analysis of leading currency charts as well as yields.

More specifically we have to look for the long term chart patterns, and structural changes in patterns like reversals from secular support or resistance as well as breakouts or breakdowns from secular trends. This is also the focus in this article, and we do so based on five long term charts.

The short answer to our question whether we should prepare for a global market crash in 2019: no, we do not see enough evidence as of now of a global market crash in 2019 but some of our leading indicators are visibly deteriorating. Their positions do not suggest it will become as bad as in 2008 or 2000. Particularly 10-year Yields should be followed closely, especially the 3.0 level.

Below are the details behind our short answer.

Global market crash of 2019 already started?

When it comes to stock markets one may argue that the global market crash of 2019 already started. Courtesy of Sentimentrader on Twitter the equity outflow reached its annually highest level in the last 15 years.

global market crash starting

Does this mean that the global market crash of 2019 just started? Or does it mean that it is ending as this may suggest a peak?

The problem with these data points is that they are not suggesting the start nor the end of any trend. Also, they do not reveal where capital is flowing: if capital flows to Treasuries it will push rates seriously lower which, in its turn, may be very bearish for all markets, triggering a global market crash in 2019.

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