FX Week Ahead: Biden Stimulus Speech; China Manufacturing PMI; UK GDP; US Manufacturing PMI; US NFP

04/01 THURSDAY | 00:00 GMT | USD PRESIDENT BIDEN SPEECH ON RECOVERY PACKAGE

US President Joe Biden has already seen his $1.9 trillion stimulus program pass into law, but he’s not done yet. Midweek, the American president will not only deliver remarks regarding the deployment of the first stimulus package and an update on COVID-19 vaccination efforts, but will also outline the framework for a sweeping infrastructure spending program, encompassing climate change and public education. While it remains to be seen whether or not the Biden administration prioritizes changes to the Senate filibuster is another story, but the markets may soon have a new carrot to chase.

04/01 THURSDAY | 13:45, 14:00 GMT | USD MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI (MAR), USD ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (MAR)

The US economy is gaining steam, at least in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for around 12% of all US jobs. Both readings of the sector due out from Markit IHS and the Institute of Supply Managers (ISM) suggest that March was a stronger month than February. The Markit Manufacturing PMI survey is due in at 59 from 58.6, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected at 61.3 from 60.8. Cumulatively, running at a pace near 60 suggests that US economic data momentum is improving as vaccination efforts accelerate, priming the US economy for a strong 2Q’21.

04/02 FRIDAY | 12:30 GMT | USD NONFARM PAYROLLS & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (MAR)

Following the surprisingly strong reading for February, the US labor market is looking to build on that momentum with a reading nearly twice as strong. Consensus surveys from Bloomberg News see the world’s largest economy having added +675K jobs in March following the gain of +379K jobs in February. The unemployment rate (U3) is set to drop from 6.2% to 6%.At the end of the week, the US jobs report may serve as a key stepping stone to reinvigorating the US-centric ‘reflation trade’: higher yields, higher equities, and a higher US Dollar.

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