Forecasts For The Weeks Of January 27 And February 3

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

     
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of January 27

       

January 27

       

New Home Sales - December

722K

719

730

 

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

-2.0

-3.2

   
         

January 28

       

Durable Goods Orders - December

1.5%

-2.1

0.5

 
         

S&P Case/Shiller Index - November

       

Twenty City M/M

0.0%

0.1

   

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.4

0.4

0.4

 

Twenty City Y/Y

2.4

2.2

2.4

 
         

Consumer Confidence - January

126.6

126.5

128.0

 

Richmond Fed Index

-3

-5

   
         

January 29

       

International Trade in Goods (a)

-$67.5B

-63.2

   

Wholesale Inventories (a)

0.1%

-0.1

   
         

Pending Home Sales - December

108.5

108.5

109.0

 

FMOC

1.625%

1.625

1.625

 
         

January 30

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

218K

212

215

 
         

GDP - Q4 (a)

2.1%

2.1

2.1

 
         

January 31

       

Employment Cost Index - Q4

0.7%

0.7

0.7

 

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.8

2.8

   
         

Personal Income - December

0.3%

0.5

0.3

 

Personal Spending

0.4

0.4

0.3

 
         

Chicago PMI - January

47.5

48.2

48.5

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (f)

99.1

99.1

99.1

 
         

Week of February 3

       

February 3

       

PMI Manufacturing Index - January

51.7

51.7

   
         

ISM (Mfg) - January

47.5

47.1

47.8

 

ISM Prices

       
         

Construction Spending - January

0.3%

0.6

0.5

 
         

Auto Sales - January

16.8K

16.7

   

Car Sales

4.6

4.5

   

Truck Sales

12.2

12.2

   
         

February 4

       

Factory Orders - December

1.0%

-0.7

   

Durable Goods Orders

1.5

-2.1

   

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.5

0.6

   
         

ADP Employment Survey - January

140K

202

160

 
         

February 5

       

International Trade

-$46.5B

-43.1

-44.6

 
         

PMI Services Index - January

53.2

53.2

   
         

ISM Services - January

55.2

55.0

55.1

 
         

February 6

       

Productivity - Q(4) - preliminary

1.4%

-0.2

1.2

 

Unit Labor Cost

1.8

2.5

1.7

 
         

February 7

       

Nonfarm Payrolls - January

150K

145

156

 

Private

140

139

   

Manufacturing

-12

-12

-7

 

Unemployment

3.5%

3.5

3.5

 

Average Workweek

34.3HR

34.3

34.3

 

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.1

0.3

 
         

Wholesale Inventories (f)

0.1%

-0.1

   

Consumer Credit - December

$15.0B

12.7

   
         

 

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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