Forecasts For The Weeks Of February 4 And 11

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

     
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of February 4

       

February 4

       

Auto Sales - January

17.0M

17.5

17.0

 
         
         

February 5

       

PMI Services Index - January

54.2

54.2

   

ISM Services - January

57.6

57.6

57.0

 
         

February 6

       

Productivity - Q(4) - preliminary

1.6%

2.3

1.6

 

Unit Labor Cost

1.9

0.9

1.7

 
         

February 7

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

220K

253

220

 

Consumer Credit - December

$18.0B

22.1

17.0

 
         

Week of February 11

       

February 12

       

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - January

104.4%

104.4

   

JOLTS - December

7.000M

6.888

   
         

February 13

       

Consumer Price Index - January

0.1%

-0.2

   

Core CPI

0.2

0.2

   
         

February 14

       

Producer Price Index - January

0.1%

-0.2

   

Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services)

0.2

0.0

   
         

February 15

       

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

11.5

3.9

   
         

Export Prices - February

-0.3%

-0.6

   

Import Prices

0.2

-1.0

   

Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum

-0.2

0.3

   
         

Industrial Production - January

0.2%

0.3

   

Manufacturing Output

0.1

1.1

   

Capacity Utilization

78.8

78.7

   
         

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (p)

92.5

91.2

   
         
 

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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