Forecasts For The Weeks Of February 22 And March 1

Update of Thursday's preliminary report.

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.      
  Forecast Prior Observation Consensus
Week of February 22      
February 22      
Leading Indicators - January 0.3% 0.3 0.4
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 8.5 7.0  
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.40 0.52  
       
February 23      
S&P Case/Shiller Index - December      
Twenty City M/M 0.8% 1.1  
Twenty City M/M - SA 1.2 1.4  
Twenty City Y/Y 9.9 9.1  
       
FHFA Housing Market Index - December 0.8% 1.0  
Consumer Confidence Index - February 90.0 89.3 90.0
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 14 14  
       
February 24      
New Home Sales - Jan 855K 842 855
       
February 25      
Durable Goods Orders - January 0.9% 0.3 1.2
GDP - Q4 (p) 4.2% 4.0 4.1
Initial Unemployment Claims 845K 861 843
Pending Home Sales - January 125.5 125.5 125.4
       
February 26      
International Trade in Goods - January (a) -$81.8B -83.2  
Wholesale Inventories (a) - January 0.6% 0.3  
       
Personal Income - January 10.5% 0.6 9.9
Personal Spending 2.8 -0.2 2.5
       
Chicago PMI - February 60.0 63.8 61.0
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (r) 76.5 76.2 76.5
       
Week of March 1      
March 1      
PMI Manufacturing Index - February 58.5 58.5  
ISM (Mfg) - February 58.9 58.7  
Construction Spending - January 0.8% 1.0  
       
March 2      
Auto Sales* - February 16.6K 16.6  
Car Sales 3.7 3.7  
Truck Sales 12.9 12.9  
       
March 3      
ADP Employment Report - February 100K 174  
PMI Services Index - February 58.9 58.9  
ISM Services Index 58.7 58.7  
       
March 4      
Initial Unemployment Claims      
       
Productivity - Q(4) - r -4.6% -4.8  
Unit Labor Cost 6.6 6.8  
       
Factory Orders - January 1.0% 0.7  
Durable Goods Orders  0.9 0.3  
Nondurable Goods Orders  1.0 1.1  
       
March 5      
Nonfarm Payrolls - February 120K 49  
Private 100 6  
Manufacturing 20 -10  
Unemployment 6.4% 6.3  
Average Workweek 34.9HR 35.0  
Average Hourly Earnings 0.2% 0.2  
       
International Trade - January -$65.6B -66.6  
Consumer Credit - January $12.0B 9.7  
       

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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