Forecasts For The Weeks Of February 22 And March 1
Update of Thursday's preliminary report.
| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
| Week of February 22 | |||
| February 22 | |||
| Leading Indicators - January | 0.3% | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 8.5 | 7.0 | |
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 0.40 | 0.52 | |
| February 23 | |||
| S&P Case/Shiller Index - December | |||
| Twenty City M/M | 0.8% | 1.1 | |
| Twenty City M/M - SA | 1.2 | 1.4 | |
| Twenty City Y/Y | 9.9 | 9.1 | |
| FHFA Housing Market Index - December | 0.8% | 1.0 | |
| Consumer Confidence Index - February | 90.0 | 89.3 | 90.0 |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 14 | 14 | |
| February 24 | |||
| New Home Sales - Jan | 855K | 842 | 855 |
| February 25 | |||
| Durable Goods Orders - January | 0.9% | 0.3 | 1.2 |
| GDP - Q4 (p) | 4.2% | 4.0 | 4.1 |
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 845K | 861 | 843 |
| Pending Home Sales - January | 125.5 | 125.5 | 125.4 |
| February 26 | |||
| International Trade in Goods - January (a) | -$81.8B | -83.2 | |
| Wholesale Inventories (a) - January | 0.6% | 0.3 | |
| Personal Income - January | 10.5% | 0.6 | 9.9 |
| Personal Spending | 2.8 | -0.2 | 2.5 |
| Chicago PMI - February | 60.0 | 63.8 | 61.0 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (r) | 76.5 | 76.2 | 76.5 |
| Week of March 1 | |||
| March 1 | |||
| PMI Manufacturing Index - February | 58.5 | 58.5 | |
| ISM (Mfg) - February | 58.9 | 58.7 | |
| Construction Spending - January | 0.8% | 1.0 | |
| March 2 | |||
| Auto Sales* - February | 16.6K | 16.6 | |
| Car Sales | 3.7 | 3.7 | |
| Truck Sales | 12.9 | 12.9 | |
| March 3 | |||
| ADP Employment Report - February | 100K | 174 | |
| PMI Services Index - February | 58.9 | 58.9 | |
| ISM Services Index | 58.7 | 58.7 | |
| March 4 | |||
| Initial Unemployment Claims | |||
| Productivity - Q(4) - r | -4.6% | -4.8 | |
| Unit Labor Cost | 6.6 | 6.8 | |
| Factory Orders - January | 1.0% | 0.7 | |
| Durable Goods Orders | 0.9 | 0.3 | |
| Nondurable Goods Orders | 1.0 | 1.1 | |
| March 5 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - February | 120K | 49 | |
| Private | 100 | 6 | |
| Manufacturing | 20 | -10 | |
| Unemployment | 6.4% | 6.3 | |
| Average Workweek | 34.9HR | 35.0 | |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.2% | 0.2 | |
| International Trade - January | -$65.6B | -66.6 | |
| Consumer Credit - January | $12.0B | 9.7 | |
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