Bitcoin - Fail, Learn, Improve

The good news is that we still see Bitcoin (BITCOMP) to be the number one asset class for your wealth preservation portfolio. And this is paired with a good chance to see higher prices in the near future.

BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Whatever Works:

Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of May 3rd, 2021.

Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of May 3, 2021.

One healthy way for progress is to walk the road less traveled by and be independent of the opinion of others. Stacking odds means backtesting any and all ways to find probabilities in your favor. In Bitcoin, we found a high likelihood for specific trading patterns. On the daily chart, it isn’t atypical for Bitcoin to produce the pointed-out price movement series (A, B, C, D, E) in sequence.

When comparing our lines, you will find not only similarities in percentage moves, but also in the steepness of angles. In this case, our future projection is noteworthy because the distance between points C and D on the right side of the chart is much shorter than in the same white-lined picture to the left. This means a minor retracement – meaning a more aggressive step in of the bulls.

What is also essential is that Bitcoin might seem to be ranging and indeed has large retracements, but it is trading in a wide range up-sloping directional channel (yellow lines), which further indicates strength. We conclude that a progression of price to the upside has a higher likelihood than downward movement, and that the taking out of all-time highs is a possibility in store.

BTC-USD, Daily Chart, Don’t Trust Your Feelings:

Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of May 3rd, 2021. b

Bitcoin in US Dollar, daily chart as of May 3, 2021.

Another glance at the daily chart illustrates another principle we follow: “Don’t trust your feelings.” The linear regression channel indicates the presence of short-term drift elements to the sideways/downside. When Bitcoin isn’t advancing, it has temporary sideways periods of a few days where stops are taken out.

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Disclaimer: All published information represents the opinion and analysis of Mr Florian Grummes & his partners, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Grummes’s ...

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