Fear Of COVID Keeps The Unemployment Rate Artificially Low

We can easily calculate a "what if" rate by adding 4.2 million to the labor force and the number of unemployed.

Every month I post the jobs report and details needed for the calculation. In April I noted Economy Adds Over 900,000 Jobs Beating the Consensus By a Mile

BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

  • Nonfarm Payroll: +916,000 to 144,120,000 - Establishment Survey
  • Employment: +609,000 to 150,848,000- Household Survey
  • Unemployment: -262,000 to 9,710,000- Household Survey
  • Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.2 to 6.0% - Household Survey
  • U-6 unemployment: -0.4 to 10.7% - Household Survey
  • Civilian Non-institutional Population: +85,000 to 261,003,000
  • Civilian Labor Force: +347,000 to 160,558,000 - Household Survey
  • Not in Labor Force: -263,000 to 100,445,000 - Household Survey
  • Participation Rate: +0.1 to 61.5% - Household Survey

If we add 4.2 million to the number of unemployed and also to the labor force we can calculate a far better number than the 6.0% as claimed by the BLS.

Unemployment Rate = ((9.71 Million + 4.2 million) / (160.558 million + 4.2 million)) * 100

Unemployment Rate = 8.4% 

Powell Says the True Unemployment Rate is Actually 10%

In January the official unemployment rate was 6.3%. I commented, Fed Chair Powell Says the True Unemployment Rate is Actually 10%.

I was asked by an economist how the Fed made that determination and posted the method here: How Did the Fed Conclude the Real Unemployment Rate Was 10% in January?

It's Been One Heck of a Recovery in Low-Paying Zoomer Jobs

I also played a set of "What If" scenarios in It's Been One Heck of a Recovery in Low-Paying Zoomer Jobs

For a look at Employment Population Ratios by age Group, please see Employment Trends Show Gen Z, Zoomers were the Hardest Hit Group By COVID

This recovery is strong, but it's nowhere near as strong as reported or believed.

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