Thursday, April 9, 2020 8:45 AM EDT
23 trading days from bull market peak to bear market bottom. 12 trading days from bear market bottom to the start of the new bull market. Both are records.
As I have often said. “Weird begets weird.” When things are weird, it may not be prudent to rely on prior statistical measures. It might be better to think about the structural economy and try to reason about what is going on.
As for me, I am tracking the leading cause of the weirdness — COVID-19, and trying to get a grasp on when the new cases will be minimal.
Things are going better than the politicians are saying. That is why the market has been rallying.
It may take 6-12 months for the economy to return to normal, assuming that the government does its job well with respect to its restrictions.
All that said, it will be volatile. After all,one thing that is utterly new is that the economy would be voluntarily shut down. There were better ways to do this, and there will be many arguments as the actions of governments are debated after this crisis.
Disclaimer: David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on ...
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Disclaimer: David Merkel is an investment professional, and like every investment professional, he makes mistakes. David encourages you to do your own independent "due diligence" on any idea that he talks about, because he could be wrong. Nothing written here, at RealMoney, Wall Street All-Stars, or anywhere else David may write is an invitation to buy or sell any particular security; at most, David is handing out educated guesses as to what the markets may do. David is fond of saying, "The markets always find a new way to make a fool out of you," and so he encourages caution in investing. Risk control wins the game in the long run, not bold moves. Even the best strategies of the past fail, sometimes spectacularly, when you least expect it. David is not immune to that, so please understand that any past success of his will be probably be followed by failures. Also, though David runs Aleph Investments, LLC, this blog is not a part of that business. This blog exists to educate investors, and give something back. It is not intended as advertisement for Aleph Investments; David is not soliciting business through it. When David, or a client of David's has an interest in a security mentioned, full disclosure will be given, as has been past practice for all that David does on the web. Disclosure is the breakfast of champions. Additionally, David may occasionally write about accounting, actuarial, insurance, and tax topics, but nothing written here, at RealMoney, or anywhere else is meant to be formal "advice" in those areas. Consult a reputable professional in those areas to get personal, tailored advice that meets the specialized needs that David can have no knowledge of.
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