Unlike 2001 Or 2008

There is a massive swath of the labor market directly or indirectly impacted by this shutdown. The U.S. is a service-based economy. That means a lot of person to person contact. As you can see from the table above, 12% of the labor market is directly affected by COVID-19. On March 21st and March 22nd, OpenTable restaurant bookings were down 100% in America. This type of decline can only occur in a mandated shutdown. 7.3% of the labor market is secondarily impacted by this shutdown. The good news is grocery, health, and online retail are hiring people. However, it’s not enough to counteract the tidal wave of job losses. 12.8% of workers are non-essential and can’t work from home. This all adds up to 32% of the labor force.

Mining Investment To Be Hurt Badly

The energy industry is in dire shape as even the super major drillers are seeing their stocks collapse. The good news is the oil and gas extraction industry doesn’t employ a lot of people. It only had 157,000 workers in February. Its employment fell about 60,000 after the fracking industry cratered in 2014. The bad news is the decline in oil prices will hurt mining production which will hurt industrial production similar to the 2015-2016 manufacturing recession.

A Rebound In South Korea

The situation on COVID-19 isn’t all dire news. Italy has seen a stabilization in the number of new cases per day. This shouldn’t be a surprise because the country has been on lockdown for a couple weeks. Furthermore, the number of new cases in Lombardy, Italy (hardest hit area) fell from 3,251 to 1,691 to 1,555 (March 21st to the 23rd). One of the earliest hit countries, South Korea has seen a big rebound in exports in the first 20 days of March.

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