TalkMarkets Tuesday Talk: May Market Maze

It's the last Tuesday in May and the start of a short trading week to end out the month, and what the week will look like is anyone's guess. With US-China tensions rising, and economies re-opening a mix of good and bad news is sure to send the charts up and down. Still, May thus far seems to have shown some signs of reduced volatility as the month to date chart for the Dow Jones shows:

The lowest day for the Dow m-t-d being May 13 with a close in the 23,200 range, other than that the level seems to be close to 24,000. Not the almost 30,000 level where the Dow was at the beginning of the year, but a good level above the March 23 "crash" low of 18,591.

With a nod to this seemingly lower volatility here's a look at what some TalkMarkets contributors have to say about the road ahead and some thoughts on where to invest and how investing is changing in the post "corona crash" world.

Steven Saville  writes in, There Will Be A ‘V’ Recovery…Sort Of , that the second half of the year will show the economy rebounding and the initial rebound will look like a "V" in the charts, but that this initial recovery won't be sustainable, as getting from more than 20% unemployment back to pre-pandemic levels of less than 4% in the U.S. will take some time.

"There will be a ‘V’ shaped recovery, but due to the destruction of real wealth stemming from the lockdowns the rising part of the V is bound to be much shorter than the declining part of the V. This will lead to a general realization that life for the majority of people will be far more difficult in the future than it was over the preceding few years."

Charles Sizemore looks for where to invest to get the best yields in, Where To Find Yield Today, and finds opportunities in Real Estate Investment Trusts, Business Development companies and pipelines. With interest rates hovering at zero it is a good time to be a borrower, but an investor looking for good returns has his or her work cut out for them. Here are some of his thoughts and picks.

Sizemore notes that a lot of negativity about the industry is unwarranted, though it may take a year for REITs to recover, he says the best of these companies have good dividends which are not at risk in his point of view. Realty Income (O) with a current dividend yield of 5.5%, Ventas (VTR) 11.5% and also, EPR Properties (EPR).

Those who may not want to hold individual securities should look at "The Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF (VNQ) gives you broad exposure and yields an attractive 4.2%."

"Business development companies make loans and equity investments in small- and medium-sized businesses, making them a lot closer to Main Street than to Wall Street." Two that are mentioned in the article are Ares Capital Corp (ARCC) and Main Street Capital (MAIN) which he says "currently offer yields of 12.2% and 9.0%, respectively".

With regard to pipelines, Sizemore believes they got battered for no good reason in the current crude oil wars, as they tend to carry more natural gas than crude. A couple that he likes are "Kinder Morgan (KMI) at a 7.1% yield and shares of Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) at a whopping 10.3% yield".

As to the "corona crash" blood bath that some of these stocks endured, "it seems like the worst is behind them. And if you’re looking where to find the highest yields these days, this definitely points you in the right direction."

Rod Raynovitch looks to the light coming from the biotech sector in his article, What’s Next For The Biotech Bull Market? Are You A Trader Or An Investor?. Like many others, he is confident that the search for a vaccine and better diagnostics to fight COVID-19 is a great opportunity for biotech and bio-pharma companies.

"The breakthrough potential for a COVID-19 vaccine or a new viral diagnostic product has been the focus of the market. And with the Fed providing ample liquidity, institutional investors are funding companies of all sizes while traders take advantage of huge daily moves.

Since the mid-March 2020 3/23 bottom biotech has outperformed the S&P 500 (down 8.5%YTD) with the IBB up 10.6% YTD and the more volatile equal weighted XBI up 11.5% YTD at $106."

Raynovitch gets specific and you can delve into the article to get all the details about his short, medium and long term recommendations. Of note for those with strong risk appetites:

For traders, "this momentum market is in your favor even with micro-caps. My current short term trades that may interest you are: ALXN PACB VIR and XNCR".

The team at Lipper Alpha Insight , looks at changes in the investing landscape and believes that ESG investing (environmental, sustainability and governance) will become the new gold standard for many professional asset management advisors. In their article Asset Managers Gear Up For New Normal As Market Bears Unprecedented Turmoil, they note that "ESG-driven investments have become one of the most prominent emerging strategies".

Despite a lot of current chatter in the financial markets and other places, that environmental and sustainability concerns will take a back seat in getting the world economy out of the "corona crash" bottom, Lipper's research among prominent investment firms such as Fidelity and UBS Asset Management shows otherwise.

Xav Feng, director at Lipper Asia Pacific Research sums it up this way, "these portfolio managers, well-trained in interpreting sustainability reports and evaluating corporate governance structures, will come together and be a significant force in driving the integration of ESG criteria with the way funds are managed... at some point in time sustainable investment using ESG criteria will become the new normal,”.

Harvi Sadhra of ValueWalk looks at what Berkshire Hathway (BRK-A) has been doing during the crisis and likes three of their holdings in particular. In Three Warren Buffett Tech Stocks To Buy: AMZN, AAPL, STNE, Sadrha looks at Apple, Amazon and Stone and assesses, the merits of each one.

"Apple, Amazon, and Stone are financially sound companies with good growth potential. While the uncertainty has hit stocks of Apple and Stone, shares of Amazon have skyrocketed. This is the right time for long-term investors to buy Apple and Stone. Investors should keep an eye on Amazon and buy at a dip." Check out the article for a detailed look at all three and some of the reasons the folks in Omaha like them.

Optimism seems to be carrying us forward through the month till now, but here is quote from the "Old Farmer's Almanac"*:

“Never cast a clout until May is out.”

Reminding us not to throw caution to the wind just, yet!

*"Clout is from an Old English word for cloth or clothing, and the saying was a reminder not to be too quick to shuck the winter woollies before the chilly days of May were over."

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Anthony Varrell 3 years ago Member's comment

Good roundup.