The short-term trend turned upwards on January 9, but I missed it because the downtrend was so brief. Or, maybe labeling a downtrend on January 3 was a mistake.

I missed the change in trend, and I am in the position of having uninvested cash while the market is making strong price gains. How did I end up with too much cash while the market is hitting new highs?

Because I didn't stick to my own trade plan for the week.

I previously said I would raise cash when the Nasdaq broke below this uptrend. Well, I went ahead and raised cash without waiting for the break. Why? Because I was nervous about losing my gains. I've made worse trading mistakes although I am wondering if my decision to take profits early was a sense of caution or greed?

Now the Nasdaq is pushing up against the top of the range within the upward channel, and it is happening late in a market cycle that started in early October.

So what to do now? Deploying cash into the market while the PMO is at the top of its range has never worked for me, so, for the most part, while this market continues its short-term uptrend, I will just have to sit back and watch other people making money. I'll need to deal with FOMO by being disciplined.

This chart below makes me feel less foolish for wanting to take profits.

There was a very nice cup-and-handle break out for the Utilities this week? Does this support the market by showing how deep and broad market participation is? Or does this work against the market as a defensive rotation into the stocks that will decline the least if there is a market pullback? Or a third option, that it is both?

Home Construction popped out of a very nice double bottom base pattern.

The US economy has bounced back and is looking strong based on this leading index. Any market weakness would be a buy based on this chart.

Last week I mentioned that this index shown below was one of the only that wasn't confirming the current market strength. Well, it is now on the side of the bulls with a nice breakout.

No sign yet from this chart that the inflation-sensitive stocks are ready to outperform.

Outlook Summary

The long-term outlook is positive as of Jan. 11.- recent upgrade

The short-term trend is up as of Jan. 9. 

The medium-term trend for the price of Treasury bonds is down as of Oct.11 (prices lower, yields higher). 

Investing Themes:

Technology (IYW),  Semiconductors (SOXX), Software (IGV), Smart Infrastructure (GRID), Health Care Providers (IHF), Medical Devices (IHI), Clean Energy (ICLN), Solar (TAN)

Strategy During a Bull Market:

• Buy large-cap stocks and ETFs at the lows of the medium or short-term market trends
• Buy small-cap growth stocks on breaks to new highs in the early stages of market trends
• Reduce buying when the market trend is at the top of the range
• Take partial profits when the market uptrend starts to struggle at the highs
• The cardinal rule is never invest based on personal politics because the stock market can do well regardless of which political party is in control