Bitcoin is surging today as news hit the tape that a judge ruled in favor of Grayscale over the SEC in an appeal to convert its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF. As a result, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is currently trading higher by over 16% on the day. After trading below its 50-DMA since 8/17, today’s jump has sent it back above that moving average and up to the high end of the range it has occupied since the spring.

Perhaps more impressive, the nearly 17% gain as of this writing puts GBTC on pace for its largest single-day gain since July 26, 2021. Back then it had risen 24.27% in response to rumors (which never came to fruition) that Amazon would begin to accept bitcoin as a form of payment. Looking back further, only a handful of days since the start of 2020 have seen larger moves as today ranks as the 26th biggest single-day gain in the trust’s history.

Again, it has been over two years since the last time GBTC rose over 15% in a single session. While not to say GBTC (and bitcoin more broadly) has not had its share of rollercoaster swings in that time, the 526 trading day gap between 15% one-day rallies is the largest streak without a 15% move in GBTC’s history dating back to 2015.

In the chart below, we show the daily volume (as well as volumes on a 50-day rolling average) over the past five years. As hopes for crypto have been tarnished by a number of negative catalysts, the past two and a half years have seen activity in GBTC fall dramatically versus the early 2021 peak. However, the surge in activity today has already seen over 14 million shares trade as of this writing. With a few hours still left to go in the trading day, it is shaping up to at least be GBTC’s busiest day since last November when FTX collapsed. Although the swing higher on strong volume has been impressive, and today’s news does provide some hope for crypto on the regulatory front, one day does not make a trend.

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