Macro Briefing - Monday, Aug. 11

Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD to pay 15% of China chip sales to the US government. “The two chipmakers agreed to the financial arrangement as a condition for obtaining export licences for the Chinese market that were granted last week, according to people familiar with the situation, including a US official,” the FT reports.

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Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman calls for three rate cuts. A dissenter in favor of a cut at the last Fed meeting, which left rates uncahnged, she said in a speech over the weekend that “the latest labor market data reinforce my view” for three cuts this year.

Tariffs should eventually become a “melting ice cube” if US manufacturing increases and imports declines, said Treasury Secretary Bessent. Talks with China are particularly significant but complicated by its “non-market economy,” he advised.

US companies are buying back their shares at record pace. Buybacks are projected to top $1.1 trillion in 2025, led by big banks and tech firms, reports The Wall Street Journal.

US headline consumer inflation is expected to edge higher for a third straight month in tomorrow’s July report, according to the consensus forecast via Econoday.com. The expected 2.8% rise in headline CPI, if correct, will mark the highest level since February.


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