Fund Investors Remain Risk Averse For The Week Despite Strong Market Returns

For the sixth consecutive week, investors were overall net purchasers of fund assets (including those of conventional funds and ETFs), injecting $75.0 billion for Lipper’s fund-flows week ended April 8, 2020. Fund investors were net purchasers of money market funds (+$72.6 billion) and equity funds (+$8.1 billion) but were net redeemers of taxable fixed-income funds (-$3.4 billion), and municipal bond funds (-$2.3 billion) this week.

Market Wrap-Up

For the fund-flows week ended April 8, 2020, markets chalked up plus-side returns, recovering some of the declines witnessed in the last few weeks as investors’ hopes grew that the coronavirus outbreak might stabilize soon, and oil prices initially looked like they might be on the mend as well.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Price Only Index (+11.89%) witnessed the largest gains for the fund-flows week of the broadly followed U.S. indices, followed by the S&P 500 Price Only Index (+11.31%). Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite Price Only Index (+9.92%) was the relative laggard of the group. Overseas, the Xetra DAX Total Return Index (+7.66%) and Nikkei 225 Price Only Index (+5.52%) chalked up the largest returns of the often-followed broad-based global indices, while the Shanghai Composite Price Only Index (+3.50%) was the relative laggard for the week.

On Thursday, April 2, the Dow overcame a rough start to end the day up 470 points as investors hoped that negotiations among some of the behemoth oil producers might curb oil production and provide a reprieve to embattled prices. While concerns over monstrous first-time jobless claims for the previous week (6.64 million, a record amount) placed a pall over the market early in the day, a tweet from President Donald Trump that he expected Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut production by 10 million barrels per day sent the major benchmarks higher.

On Friday, April 3, stocks tumbled after the Department of Labor reported that March nonfarm payrolls declined by 701,000—far exceeding the estimates by analysts—and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Most analysts felt the numbers are actually far worse than reported. The additional first-time jobless claims mentioned above along with the prior week’s report of 3.3 million could put the total in the 10 million range, with an unemployment rate closer to 10%. There were two bright spots on the day: Oil rose 11.9% on the day, to $28.34, and the March ISM nonmanufacturing index, while declining to 52.5, still showed signs of slow growth.

However, on Monday, April 6, investors pushed U.S. stocks up 7% on the day as their hopes grew that the coronavirus outbreak may be stabilizing in New York, which is now the epicenter of the pandemic. Despite warnings from President Trump that the days and weeks ahead might be the toughest in the pandemic era, the latest data showed that New York City saw its first decline in fatalities. In addition, reports showed that both Spain and Italy, two of the hardest-hit countries in Europe, were experiencing a decline in reported death rates as well. Adding further fodder to the upside, the Federal Reserve announced that its commercial paper funding facility will begin on April 14. For the day, near month gold prices rose 2.9% to $1,693.90 an ounce, its highest finish since December 17, 2012.

Despite further signs that the COVID-19 pandemic might be leveling off, the markets declined on Tuesday, April 7, as investors evaluated the strength of the prior day’s rally given the news that there were more than 378,000 confirmed cases in the U.S. In other news, oil prices declined after the Energy Information Administration cut its benchmark price forecast by more than 20% for the year. On Wednesday, the Dow rose 770 points for the day as investors eyed the possibility of a sooner-than-expected rollback of the current containment measures and a softening of social distancing mandates, even though Johns Hopkins University reported death rates in the U.S. rose sharply to more than 12,900 and confirmed cases neared 400,000 (more than double the amount in any other nation).

Exchange-Traded Equity Funds

For the first week in three, equity ETFs witnessed net inflows, taking in $10.1 billion for the most recent fund-flows week. Authorized participants (APs) were net purchasers of domestic equity ETFs (+$11.2 billion), injecting net new money for the first week in three. Meanwhile, nondomestic equity ETFs witnessed their seventh week of net outflows, handing back $1.1 billion this past week. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY, +$7.1 billion) and Invesco QQQ Trust 1 ETF (QQQ, +$2.1 billion) attracted the largest amounts of net new money of all individual equity ETFs. At the other end of the spectrum, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA, -$1.4 billion) experienced the largest individual net redemptions, and iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM, -$1.3 billion) suffered the second largest net redemptions of the week.

Exchange-Traded Fixed Income Funds

For the second week in a row, taxable fixed income ETFs witnessed net inflows, taking in $4.1 billion. APs were net purchasers of flexible ETFs (+$2.4 billion) and government-Treasury ETFs (+$2.1 billion) while being net redeemers of international & global debt ETFs (-$301 million) and corporate high-yield ETFs (-$192 billion). iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD, +$879 million) and iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI, +$584 million) attracted the largest amounts of net new money of all individual taxable fixed income ETFs. Meanwhile, iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP, -$579 million) and iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG, -$419 million) handed back the largest individual net redemptions for the week. For the sixth week in a row, municipal bond ETFs witnessed net outflows, handing back $462 million this week.

Conventional Equity Funds

For the fourteenth week in 15, conventional fund (ex-ETF) investors were net redeemers of equity funds, withdrawing $2.0 billion, despite posting a 9.23% return for the flows week. Domestic equity funds, handing back a little less than $567 million, witnessed their fourteenth weekly net outflows in 15 while posting a 10.20% return on average for the fund-flows week. Nondomestic equity funds, posting a 7.18% gain on average, witnessed their fifth weekly net outflows in six, handing back $1.5 billion this past week. On the domestic equity side, fund investors continued to shun large-cap funds (-$871 million), while investors on the nondomestic equity side were net redeemers of international equity funds (-$1.5 billion).

Conventional Fixed Income Funds

For the sixth week running, taxable bond funds (ex-ETFs) witnessed net outflows, handing back $7.5 billion this past week, while posting a 1.92% return for the fund-flows week. Investors were net purchasers of corporate high-yield funds (+$2.1 billion) and government-Treasury & mortgage funds (+$479 million), while corporate investment-grade debt funds (-$4.7 billion), flexible funds (-$2.9 billion), and international & global debt funds (-$890 million) witnessed the largest net outflows of the group. For the sixth week in a row, municipal bond funds (ex-ETFs) witnessed net outflows—handing back $1.8 billion—while posting a 1.11% gain on average for their second straight weekly market gain.

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