Over the weekend I wrote about junk bonds (HYG) as our clue as to when the market might stop rallying.

HYG gapped lower today breaking beneath its 50-DMA.

And worse, also fell right to the January 6-month calendar range low (red horizontal line).

Momentum also fell as per our Real Motion Indicator.

For junk bonds and small caps, the next day or two will be very telling on whether this a buyable dip, or the start of a bigger correction.

Small caps, or IWM AKA Granddad Russell 2000, also broke the 50-DMA, yet remains well above the January 6-month calendar range low.

We will watch for these scenarios before planning our next trades or exit plans on existing ones with good profits.

1. HYG holds these lows and works its way back to 77.00 or the 50-DMA. A close above would be considered strong.
2. A move under today’s lows in HYG, regardless of what IWM is doing, we would think a bigger correction is coming.
3. IWM, which failed to hold above the January calendar range high and is not that far under the 50-DMA, clears and holds back above 195. Even if HYG just consolidates, we would consider this a positive for the small caps and market.
4. IWM cannot clear back above 195 and confirms a caution phase, which will lead us to wait for a test of 185 before buying anything new.

In the triad of the Family, also note that Granny Retail XRT did better and has to hold 70.00.

Transportation, IYT held 266, which is the area it broke out from.

Hopefully, watching these four instruments will help determine whether today was an overreaction or a new buy opportunity.

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY) 500 now the pivotal point-490 near-term support

Russell 2000 (IWM) 185 the underlying support

Dow (DIA) 385 now resistance

Nasdaq (QQQ) 430 now resistance

Regional banks (KRE) Back to the 45-50 range

Semiconductors (SMH) Support 196

Transportation (IYT) 266 support

Biotechnology (IBB) 135 pivotal

Retail (XRT) The Jan calendar range high at 73 now back to resistance with 70.00 support

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