Commitment Of Traders This Week, Futures, Hedge Fund Positions

Two weeks ago, the Russell 2000 lost 1450s.  Both daily and weekly momentum indicators are grossly oversold.  In the right circumstances for bulls, the index can go test that support-turned-resistance.

In the week to Wednesday, IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) gained $332 million, and IJR (iShares core S&P small-cap ETF) $165 million (courtesy of ETF.com).

US Dollar IndexCurrently net long 36k, down 2.1k.

The cash (96.46) lost short-term support at 96.50-ish, but only to close out the week right at that level.  Several times over November and December, it tried to take out 97.50-ish, but in vain.  Since bottoming at 88-plus early this year, the US dollar index has rallied nicely.  Weekly momentum indicators – overbought – have turned down.  Major support lies at just north of 95.  A test looks imminent.

VIXCurrently net long 44.2k, up 4.1k.

The CBOE equity-only put-to-call ratio jumped this week.  Twice, readings were in the 0.90s, and Friday’s 1.13 was the highest since January 2016.  The 21-day moving average ended the week at 0.741; in 2016, the ratio rose as high as 0.764 in May and 0.771 in February.  This metric is beginning to reflect a decent amount of fear.

In the meantime, after more than two months of spiking to 28.84 intraday on October 11, the cash (30.11) surpassed that high later this week.  Throughout this, VIX has acted relatively subdued even as the S&P 500 kept going lower.

Non-commercials continue to remain net long.  It is just a matter of time before this unwinds.  If past is prologue, unwinding creates a tailwind for equities.

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Disclaimer: This article is not intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed here constitutes an offer to buy or sell any ...

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