Commitment Of Traders This Week, Futures, Hedge Fund Positions

EuroCurrently net short 53.1k, down 3.2k.

For five weeks, the cash ($114.10) traded within a pennant, which it poked its head out of this week.  From bulls’ perspective, this is constructive.

The euro dropped from $125.37 early January to $112.15 on November 12.  Since mid-August, bulls have more or less shown up at/near $113.  The 50-day ($113.94) is trying to at least flatten out.  Real test lies just north of $115, where bulls and bears have consistently locked horns particularly over the past four years.  Thursday, in a long-legged doji session, it rallied to $114.86 before sellers showed up.

GoldCurrently net long 76k, up 15.5k.

With four and a half sessions to go this month, the cash ($1,258.10/ounce) is up 2.6 percent.  If it holds, this will be the third consecutive positive month after six negative ones.

Gold dropped from $1,369.40 in April this year to $1,167.10 mid-August.  Since that low, it has traded within an ascending channel, the upper bound of which lies around here.  The daily chart is extended.  In the event of downward pressure near term, gold bugs likely will step up in defense of $1,240, which the metal broke out of early this month.

In the week to Wednesday, GLD (SPDR gold ETF) took in $329 million and IAU (iShares gold trust ETF) $14 million (courtesy of ETF.com).

Non-commercials’ net longs are at a five-month high.

Nasdaq 100 index (mini)Currently net long 3.5k, up 6.5k.

After holding 6600 for seven weeks, bulls could no longer defend that support.  The cash (6046.56) not only lost that level early this week but shorts showed up there mid-week.

In the week to Wednesday, $858 million was withdrawn from QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust).  In the prior two weeks, the ETF gained $1.5 billion (courtesy of ETF.com).

Having lost one after another support, bulls have their backs against the wall.  Both daily and weekly charts are in oversold territory.  A relief rally is imminent.  How things evolve around 6600 will be a big tell.

Russell 2000 mini-indexCurrently net short 20.9k, down 990.

In February 2016, the cash (1292.09) bottomed at 943.10.  It then reached an all-time high of 1742.09 in late August this year.  A 50-percent retracement of that move rests at 1343, which has already been undercut.  A 61.8-percent retracement lies at 1253.  Right around there lies horizontal support going back to March 2015.  A test of this is the best-case scenario for bears.  Should it come to pass, the Russell 2000 would have dropped 28.1 percent.  Through Friday’s intraday low of 1289.49, it is down 26 percent.

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Disclaimer: This article is not intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed here constitutes an offer to buy or sell any ...

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