Commitment Of Traders This Week, Futures, Hedge Fund Positions

30-year bondCurrently net short 52.3k, down 9.9k.

Major economic releases next week are as follows.  Happy Holidays!

The S&P Case-Shiller home price index for October is due out Wednesday.  Nationally in September, home prices increased 5.5 percent year-over-year.  Price appreciation has decelerated from 6.5 percent in March this year.

November’s new home sales are scheduled for Thursday.  Sales dropped 8.9 percent month-over-month in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 544,000 units.  They have been under pressure since reaching 712,000 units in November 2017.

Crude oilCurrently net long 377.1k, up 7.8k.

Crude oil does not act well.

Spot West Texas Intermediate crude ($45.59/barrel) went from $76.90 on October 3 – the same day stocks in general began to dive – to Friday’s intraday low of $45.13.  Like that!  Supply-demand dynamics or not, this cannot be boding well for the global economy.

Speaking of which, in the week to December 14, US crude production remained unchanged at 11.6 million barrels per day.  Crude imports inched up 30,000 bpd to 7.4 mbpd.  Gasoline stocks rose 1.8 million barrels to 230.1 million barrels.  Crude and distillate stocks, however, fell 497,000 barrels and 4.2 million barrels to 441.5 million barrels and 119.9 million barrels, respectively.  Refinery utilization edged up three-tenths of a percentage point to 95.4 percent.

This week, spot WTI lost another 11 percent.  This was preceded by three weeks of sideways action in which it tried to stabilize, only to come under renewed pressure early this week.  Immediately ahead, $50 poses resistance.  Worse, there is decent support at $43-$44.

E-mini S&P 500Currently net long 210.3k, up 36.1k.

After losing record $46.2 billion in the week ended Wednesday last week, another $34.6 billion came out of US-based funds in the week to Wednesday this week (courtesy of Lipper).  In the same week, S&P 500-focused ETFs saw inflows, with SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) taking in $3.7 billion, IVV (iShares core S&P 500 ETF) $1.7 billion and VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) $264 million (courtesy of ETF.com), but this is nothing compared to what came out of funds.  In the meantime, money-market-fund assets keep accumulating.  In the week through Wednesday, these assets were north of $3 trillion (courtesy of ICI).

Investor preference for cash is clearly on the rise.  Foreigners continue to reduce exposure to US stocks.  From 2939.86 on October 3 through Friday’s intraday low, the S&P 500 index (2416.62) lost 18.1 percent.  Several indicators are beginning to reflect fear.  The percent of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day moving average fell to 6.2 percent Friday, below the low of nine percent back in February 2016.  Fuel for a sharp relief rally is building.  Our own Hedgopia Risk Reward Index has dropped back into the green zone.

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Disclaimer: This article is not intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed here constitutes an offer to buy or sell any ...

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